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Old 05-02-2007, 08:17 AM
godoggo godoggo is offline
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Rookies make rare splash

NFL.com - NFL Fantasy

-- Rookies can sometimes be the difference between a championship caliber team and one that battles to reach the .500 mark, so this weekend's NFL draft (April 28-29) will be of immense interest in the world of fantasy football. After a season that saw Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Marques Colston all make statistical smashes, there's no doubt that the most notable names in this season's class will be coveted.
While the accomplishments of the aforementioned rookies were fantastic indeed, owners should still remember that the transition from the collegiate to the professional level takes time in most cases. In fact, last season's class was unique in that two of its members (Young, Jones-Drew) recorded 200-plus fantasy points and a total of seven scored 130-plus points. A mere two rookies (Ben Roethlisberger, Clinton Portis) reached the 200-point mark in the previous four classes combined, and the last season that saw seven rookies produce 130-plus points came back in 1996.
Part of the reason for last season's increase in rookie production is that more collegiate programs now run more pro-level offenses, so prospects like Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson (to name a few) have a noted advantage. But outside of the running back position, it's important for owners in seasonal formats not to overrate rookies based on their expectations because in most cases, those expectations won't be met in an immediate fashion.
In order to further explain the unpredictable (and in most cases inconsistent) numbers of rookies, we've researched the past 10 draft classes and ranked the top 10 statistical performances at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions based on fantasy points. We've also taken a look at how some of the current studs in fantasy football fared in their first season at the NFL level -- in most cases, those name athletes didn't do so well between the white lines.
(199 had the most productive rookie season at the quarterback spot from 1996-2006 when he recorded a total of 256 points, which also tied Mike Anderson for the fourth-best overall total. The new Madden cover athlete, Vince Young (2006), posted the second-best total with 231 points, Ben Roethlisberger (2004) was third with 205 points, Tim Couch (1999) was fourth with 196 points, and Chris Weinke (2001) finished fifth with a total of 194 points. Byron Leftwich (2003; 188 points), Tony Banks (1996; 183 points), Jake Plummer (1997; 182 points), David Carr (2002; 174 points) and Charlie Batch (1998; 170 points) round out the top 10.
A number of big-name quarterbacks did little in their first seasons, a list that includes Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Chad Pennington, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Daunte Culpepper and Matt Hasselbeck. These signal-callers combined for a mere 62 points as rookies.
RUNNING BACKS

Since it's the most valuable position in the world of fantasy football, it's no shock to find out that seven of the top 10 rookie seasons came from running backs. Edgerrin James (199, who came in to replace another stud runner in Indianapolis, Marshall Faulk, had the best first season overall with a total of 316 points. Clinton Portis (2002) was second with 289 points, Fred Taylor (199 finished third with 266 points, Mike Anderson (2000) came out of nowhere in Denver to produce 256 points, and Maurice Jones-Drew (2006) was fifth with 228 points. LaDainian Tomlinson (2001; 221 points), Robert Edwards (1998; 217 points), Eddie George (1996; 203), Jamal Lewis (2000; 202 points) and Karim Abdul-Jabbar (1996; 192 points) complete the top 10.
Some of the prominent names that made a minimal impact in their rookie seasons include Cedric Benson, Larry Johnson, Chester Taylor, Deuce McAllister, LaMont Jordan, Rudi Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green, Curtis Enis, Stephen Davis and Lawrence Phillips. Johnson, who will be a top-three choice in most drafts this season, scored a mere 15 points in his first pro season.
WIDE RECEIVERS

Most rookie wideouts need to have a season or two under their belts before their true statistical impact is felt, but there have been some exceptions to that rule. The most obvious example of this fact is Randy Moss (199, who had the most productive fantasy season among rookie receivers on our list with an incredible 223 points. Anquan Boldin (2003) was a distant second with 190 points, Michael Clayton (2004) was third with 167 points, Terry Glenn (1996) was next with 153 points, and Marques Colston (2006), a seventh-round choice, was fifth with 152 points. Lee Evans (2004; 147 points), Kevin Johnson (1999; 147 points), Eddie Kennison (1996; 146 points), Chris Chambers (2001; 130 points) and Roy Williams (2004; 130 points) round out the top 10.
The list of wideouts to have a minimal rookie impact is long and includes Deion Branch, Plaxico Burress, Laveranues Coles, Donald Driver, Braylon Edwards, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Derrick Mason, Santana Moss, Eric Moulds, Steve Smith, Javon Walker, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne. In fact, the rookie numbers of Johnson, Smith and Wayne combined are still 130 points fewer than the numbers Randy Moss accomplished in his first NFL season alone.


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