[ThePundit]

Jesse Campigotto, CBC Sports

At this point last year, Blue Jays fans were an optimistic lot. With owner Ted Rogers agreeing to push his payroll north of $70 million US – some $25-million higher than the season before – general manager J.P. Ricciardi was able to lure big-ticket pitchers A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan to Toronto. For the first time in years, Jays fans could dream of dethroning the free-spending Yankees and Red Sox in the American League East.

But despite a nightmarish campaign for Boston, the Jays couldn't capitalize, mustering only 87 wins – one more than the Sox, but still 10 less than the division champion Yankees and eight fewer than wild-card winner Detroit.

Jays fans could be excused, then, for feeling like their team's quest to topple baseball's superpowers is a lost cause. But hope abounds once again as Toronto heads into 2007 boasting and even larger payroll and a new (very) big bat. The question is, will it be enough?

With the Jays set to open their season April 2 in Detroit against the defending American League champion Tigers, CBC Sports Online breaks down the Jays in four major categories and offers an outlook on how Canada's only major-league club will finish in 2007.

HITTING
By most measures, the Blue Jays mashed the ball pretty well in 2006, finishing in the top four in the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs.

But despite career years by leadoff man Reed Johnson, youngster Alex Rios and doubles machine Lyle Overbay, along with terrific performances by sluggers Vernon Wells (a team-high 185 hits and 106 runs batted in) and Troy Glaus (team-high 38 homers and 105 runs), Toronto finished just seventh in the league in runs scored.

The Jays are counting big free-agent acquisition Frank Thomas to provide some pop in the heart of their lineup. (Mike Carlson/Associated Press) Most of the blame for that tepid run production fell on the Jays' failure to cash runners from scoring position, a category in which they finished next-to-last in the AL. Figuring this was mostly the product of poor luck, Ricciardi wisely elected to keep most of his lineup intact, preventing Wells from testing free agency at season's end by handing him a seven-year, $126-million contract extension, and re-upping Overbay, Johnson and Rios. Catcher Bengie Molina (19 homers) and spare outfielder Frank Catalanotto (.376 OBP) were allowed to sign elsewhere.

Figuring his team might need a little extra pop to compete with the Murderers Rows fielded by the division rival Yankees and Red Sox, Ricciardi took advantage of a bump to an estimated $75 million payroll by signing six-foot-five, 275-pound slugger Frank Thomas, whose 39 homers and 114 RBIs last season in Oakland garnered him MVP consideration. To back up the injury-prone Thomas, Ricciardi signed Canadian Matt Stairs, whose combination of patience and power could prove valuable should the Big Hurt find himself hurting.

STARTING PITCHING
What looked to be an excellent rotation heading into last year turned into a mediocre one thanks to various injuries to key players.

Flame-thrower A.J. Burnett, signed to a five-year, $55 million free-agent deal in 2006, had his surgically repaired right elbow flare up in spring training and spent significant time last season on the disabled list. He returned to pitch well in the second half, but the Jays need him to stay healthy for a full campaign if they hope to compete for a playoff spot.

Toronto will also be looking for a return to form by lefty Gustavo Chacin, 26, who missed two and a half months with a bad elbow as his performance dipped in his sophomore season.

Of course, the key to the rotation will be 29-year-old ace Roy Halladay, who posted a sterling 16-5 record and 3.19 ERA in a workmanlike 220 innings before a strained throwing arm shut him down in the final weeks of the season.

Aside from the health of their top three starters, the Jays also face questions about the back of their rotation, where Ricciardi hopes two pitchers will emerge from a five-man pool made up of journeymen Tomo Ohka, Victor Zambrano and John Thomson, and youngsters Shaun Marcum and Josh Towers. Reliable arms are needed to fill both the No. 5 spot and the No. 4 spot, which was vacated when Ted Lilly signed with the Chicago Cubs.

RELIEF PITCHING
The good news: Lights-out closer B.J. Ryan – he of the staff-best 38 saves, 1.37 ERA, .169 opponents' batting average, 10.70 strikeouts per nine innings, and 0.86 walks-plus-hits per inning pitched – is entering the second year of a five-year, $47 million contract.

The bad news: getting the ball into the big lefty's capable hands could be tougher than ever. Top setup man Justin Speier (2.98 ERA, 55 strikeouts in 51 innings last season) bolted for a four-year deal with Anaheim, leaving unanswered the question of who will handle those crucial seventh and eighth innings.

The job of holding leads for Ryan appears to be Brandon League's to lose. The hard-throwing 23-year-old showed better command last year and posted a strong 2.53 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 42 innings. But if League can't recover in time from the shoulder stiffness that has plagued him during the spring, his job could fall to a committee that may include the likes of Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Scott Downs and Davis Romero.

DEFENSE
With erratic 2006 Opening Day shortstop Russ Adams trying his hand at third base in the minors, the Jays are playing it safe with a sure-handed platoon consisting of free-agent pickup Royce Clayton and incumbent John McDonald.

Jays' second baseman Aaron Hill will be turning double plays with Royce Clayton or John MacDonald this season. (Frank Gunn/Canadian Press) Aaron Hill won't make anyone forget Orlando Hudson, but with a full season at second base under his belt he figures to improve the other end of the double-play combination.

The corner infield spots should again be solid, with Overbay manning first and Glaus, who was athletic enough to appear in eight games at short last year, holding down the hot corner.

In centre-field, Wells, a Gold Glove winner, doesn't get to as many balls as he once did, but he's still among the best in the AL. Hustling left-fielder Reed Johnson can track down a lot of flies, while swift, strong-armed Alex Rios has all the tools to be an elite right-fielder.

OUTLOOK
Fielding much the same line-up they used to go 87-75 in 2006, the Blue Jays will once again be legitimate contenders in the American League. The problem, much like last year, is that they're still only the third-best team in their division. Almost everything must go right in Toronto, and a lot must go wrong in New York and Boston – for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs. That's an improvement on years past, but still a shaky proposition given the always iffy health of key players like Thomas, Burnett and Glaus.

Toronto Blue Jays 2007 season preview | CBC Sports Online
ThePundit's prediction: 3rd in AL East. They have the 2nd best pitcher in the AL. And they certainly have a good offense. But, AJ Burnett is never healthy and the back end of their rotation is iffy. I mean, Josh Towers ERA last year was about 10. They would be a playoff team in the National League, or even in the AL West, but this division is just too tough. Anybody disagree with my assessment?

[azrael492]

Just imagine what they would be like if they had just one pitcher to go along with Halladay