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| Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. GM sales plunge 45% while Ford's and Toyota's October sales also tumble as industry braces for the lowest number of sales since 1992 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's top automakers all reported another month of sharply lower sales Monday, kicking off a series of October reports that are expected to show the worst industrywide auto sales in 16 years. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) reported that its U.S. sales plunged 45% in the month, worse than the forecast of a 41% drop from industry sales tracker Edmunds.com. Unlike some of its rivals, its sales even fell from what were weak levels in September. GM pointed to the crisis in credit markets, which it said made it much more difficult for buyers to get the loans they wanted to buy cars. "We are obviously disappointed in our results, which reflect a difficult comparison with a strong year-ago October performance," said Mark LaNeve, the GM vice president in charge of sales in North America. "More importantly, it also reflects an unprecedented credit crunch that is dramatically impacting the entire U.S. economy," he added. Ford (F, Fortune 500) sales were down 30% from a year earlier, including the company's Volvo unit in the sales total. While that was a bit better than the 35% drop forecast by sales tracker Edmunds.com, it marked the 11th straight month that Ford's sales fell from year-earlier levels. Sales were also up slightly from September, which was the weakest month for the company since January 1982. Toyota Motor, which is now the No. 2 automaker in terms of U.S. sales, posted a 23% decline from year-earlier levels. That was far worse than the 16% drop forecast by Edmunds. This was the tenth time in the past eleven months that sales fell from a year ago. Although gasoline prices eased during the month, tight credit and plunging consumer confidence kept potential buyers out of dealer showrooms. The declining sales were felt across all categories of autos at all three companies. GM reported that sales of light trucks, which includes pickups and sports utility vehicles (SUVs), plunged 51%, while car sales tumbled 34% compared to a year ago. Ford posted a year-over-year decline in sales for virtually every model it offers. The only two exceptions were the Lincoln Town Car and the Ford Flex, a newly-introduced crossover vehicle. For its core Ford, Lincoln and Mercury brands, sales of SUVs plummeted 54% from a year ago and crossover sales were off 39%. Sales of trucks and vans declined 19% while sales of cars fell 27% from a year earlier. Toyota reported similar trends, with sales of light truck models falling more than 33% from year-earlier levels. Sales of cars dropped 16%. Sales tracker Edmunds.com is forecasting that total U.S. auto sales will be down 29%. The remaining automakers will report their results later Monday. Experts are worried that the weak sales and tight credit could cause the U.S. automakers to run out of cash as soon as 2009. While Ford has more cash on hand that its U.S. rivals, it is forecast to report a much larger third quarter loss than it did year ago when it releases results Friday. Chrysler LLC is expected to post a 38% drop at its three brands. Asian automakers are expected to join Toyota in posting much lower sales as well: Edmunds.com is predicting drops of 17% for Honda Motor (HMC) and 29% for Nissan (NSANY) from year-earlier levels. Chrysler has reportedly held talks with GM as well as with the Nissan-Renault alliance about a possible merger with one of those automakers. But those talks are reportedly on hold. There has been talk that GM is seeking a loan from the Treasury Department in order to help finance a deal for Chrysler.
__________________ Equal cars don't provide good racing. Equivalent cars do. Generic cars have created generic races. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. ![]() Horrific October Car Sales Plunge Industry to Post-WW II Low - Auto Observer There were almost no words on Monday to describe how abysmal U.S. auto sales were in the woe-begotten month of October. Bled by battered consumer confidence, by more-expensive and harder-to-obtain loans, by financial-market disasters and Election Day anxieties, October sales limped in at only about 852,000 vehicles nationwide, a 32-percent plunge from a year ago. "This level of sales is not sustainable for anyone in the industry," said Michael DiGiovanni, head of global market analysis for General Motors. "It doesn't matter how deep their pockets are. Everyone is pulling in their reins to one degree or another, but everyone is affected by this." GM's sales slumped by a horrific 45 percent, the worst showing among the Big Six automakers selling in the United States. Chrysler's declined by 35 percent, Nissan's by 33 percent, Ford's by 29 percent, Honda's by 25 percent and Toyota's by 23 percent. The industry total comprised its lowest sales volume for any month since 1992. And adjusting for population growth - that is, on a per capita basis - October auto sales were the industry's worst since World War II. Record Sluggishness Similarly, the annual pace of sales in October was an abjectly dismal 10.5 million to 10.6 million vehicles on a seasonally adjusted basis, a rate more than two million vehicles below the 12.8-million rate in a rotten September. It was the worst monthly sales rate, GM said, in 26 years. This basket of terrible numbers put some flesh on the rationale for the now-likely GM-Chrysler combination and is sure to get the attention of a newly elected president and Congress as the U.S. government sits on the struggling automakers' demands for federal loan assistance to bring about a merger. More immediately, October's reports were so bad that industry executives and analysts were left grasping for superlatives to describe its awful dimensions. "I'm always very optimistic by nature," said Mark LaNeve, GM's North American vice president of sales, "but in my 27 years I never saw a month like this." Sales levels were those of a "severe, severe recession," he said. "In September, the consumer was hanging in there with us, but by the time we got to October, he was done and finished." LaNeve noted that Americans spent only about 2.8 percent of their income on vehicles in October, the lowest percentage since the federal government began keeping records in the Sixties. A level about 4 percent, he said, is typical. No Words to Describe Chrysler Vice Chairman Jim Press remarked that October "may have been a month that showed how low the industry can go," what he called "the toughest month we've seen." Jim Farley, Ford's executive vice president of sales and marketing, called October results "a sobering number," while even the company's press release described "an economic gauntlet the likes of which haven't been seen in more than two decades." With an industry "hovering at [a sales rate of] 11 million vehicles," said George Pipas, Ford's head of U.S. sales analysis, "there are no hot vehicles and no hot segments." Even Hyundai, which had been experiencing a relatively strong 2008 in U.S. sales, was wracked for a 31-percent sales decline in October. "We are experiencing one of the most challenging times in recent automotive history," said Dave Zuchowski, Hyundai Motor America's vice president of national sales. Such was the tenor of October reports that a merely dour assessment of the industry came off as sort of timid. "This is the toughest economy we've seen in a long time, especially within the automotive industry," said Mark Barnes, chief operating officer of Volkswagen of America. Of course, VW's sales were sparkling by contrast with those of the Big Three: down only about 8 percent for October and behind just 0.6 percent for the year to date. A Perfect Storm All the big players, meanwhile, faced an epochal mix of dreadful negatives that swept all but the most determined American consumer out of the vehicle-purchase picture last month. First and foremost was an absolute deflation of consumer confidence. "Wall Street now is finally being fully felt on Main Street," DiGiovanni said, in the form of the huge paper losses of investment wealth from markets around the globe, collapsing consumer confidence, rising unemployment rates, and widespread uncertainty about the future. LaNeve said that the industry "really has been contracting since Hurricane Katrina" about three years ago, which badly nicked economic activity in the South and slowed the overall U.S. economy. Earlier this year, he said, consumers reacted to the spike in gasoline prices and hesitated to buy new vehicles. "But the impact of the credit and confidence crisis is much more severe than the impact of the gas-price issue." Credit restrictions - in the form of tougher terms for auto loans and qualification of many fewer consumers for those loans - were another huge factor. "The decline in consumer spending and shrinking credit markets feed off each other in a downward spiral," said GM's DiGiovanni. The intensifying election campaign didn't help matters, either, because of how media coverage heightens public anxiety. And Chrysler and GM added another dollop of uncertainty with their merger talk. "That's probably a distraction" to consumers, Chrysler's Press said. And Chrysler has had to do more hand-holding with anxious dealers to "assure them that we'll be in business next month and next quarter and next year." More Clouds Ahead For their unanimity about how bad October was, however, industry players and observers couldn't agree whether the market had seen its worst - though they were all hoping so. "What was most frightening" about October, said DiGiovanni, "is that a week ago we didn't see this big a decline coming." Typically, he noted, retail sales are stronger at the end of each month than the beginning, accounting for as much as 60 percent of monthly sales. "But," he said, "we never got that pickup in the last 10 days. It never materialized." So, DiGiovanni and others are worried that November might not be any better and that sales could limp along at close to October's trough for a few months yet. But others see a thinning of the clouds. "We are encouraged by the prospects for November," said Hyundai's Zuchowski. "With the financial markets beginning to stabilize and the election behind us, we believe consumer confidence will be bolstered and prospects who have been on the sidelines during this period of uncertainty will re-emerge into the market to help fuel the economic engine." Press said that October "may have been the high-water mark" for bad news. "The period ahead is not laced with optimism," he said, "but I don't think it's going to continue to deteriorate. I think we've gone through the worst of the storm and came out on the lawn and found that our place is intact." Still, at best, the industry now is hoping for a 2009 that isn't materially worse than 2008 will turn out to be, and talk of any meaningful recovery generally extends to 2010 at the earliest. By then, perhaps only starting with a GM-Chrysler merger, the U.S. auto industry likely will have been dramatically reshaped. General Motors: Shooting Itself in the Foot GM sold only 171,000 vehicles in October, down 45 percent compared with a year ago. The company said that its results were compared with "a strong year-ago" October, and executives noted that even as recently as September, it posted relatively robust results. To try to generate some new momentum, GM moved up the start of its holiday-seasonal Red Tag Event a few weeks, to tomorrow. "We're barely behind Costco, where I saw Christmas decorations up already three weeks ago," LaNeve said. But while fighting tremendous headwinds in October along with the rest of the industry, GM had only itself to blame for part of its problems. That's because its captive finance arm, GMAC, announced a dramatic tightening of its credit standards last month, leading to widespread consumer perceptions that they couldn't get a loan at a GM dealer. And a few weeks earlier, GMAC had announced big cuts in leasing. "Half of our year-over-year loss was due to leasing and credit issues," said LaNeve, meaning that GM's sales loss in October otherwise would have been more in line with the rest of the industry. From its virtual elimination of GMAC leasing last month alone, he said, GM lost as many as 60,000 sales. GM recently launched a new national advertising campaign to reassure Americans that GM dealers could obtain a loan for a creditworthy buyer from one of hundreds of other financial institutions. LaNeve blamed a decline in consumer confidence on "the credit freeze," but many other industry and executives have suggested that would-be buyers are staying out of showrooms because of the nation's economic shocks rather than out of some fear that they won't be able to get a loan. Another factor that hurt GM is a relative lack of interest in its pickup trucks because both Ford and Chrysler are introducing new versions of their competitive models. Ford: Increases Retail Share, Company Says Calling the current sales environment "an economic gauntlet, the likes of which haven't been seen in more than two decades," Ford reported October sales of 129,121 Ford, Lincoln and Mercury vehicles, down 29.2 percent from 182,434 vehicles sold in October 2007. On the plus side, Ford said its retail market share was the best in two years. Ford's chief sales analyst George Pipas predicted, when final industry sales are tallied, the automaker's retail share would be 13.5 percent or as high as 14 percent. Ford's retail share has been running at 11 to 12 percent and hasn't seen the mid 13 percent range since late summer 2006. About 28 percent of Ford's total vehicle sales went to fleets, roughly the same as a year ago. It was the third straight month of a lower fleet mix than GM and Chrysler, Ford executives claimed. Yet only one Ford, Lincoln, Mercury or Volvo vehicle showed a sales rise, that being the Lincoln Town Car. And the 140.3-percent sales hike likely was due to a fleet order. Ford Division sales dropped 27.9 percent, pushing sales down 17.5 percent for the calendar year to date. Ford SUV sales were the main culprit with sales down 51.4 percent in October and down 41 percent for the year. Ford just launched the 2009 Ford F-150, with the national ad campaign breaking during Sunday's football games. F-Series sales in total, which included a mix of 2008 and 2009 models, were down 16.3 percent in October; they're off 26 percent for the year. Of the 43,324 F-Series trucks Ford sold in Octber, 3,000 were the 2009 model. The usual bright spot, the Ford Focus, had its first down month in October, with sales off 18.2 percent. Still, the small car's sales are up 20.5 percent for the year. Ford said despite October's decline, the Focus gained share in the small car segment. Similarly, the Ford Fusion, which had only a tiny 3.3 percent drop in sales for the month, gained market share in the midsize car segment. The Fusion got a boost from Consumer Reports that praised it for having the best reliability in the midsize class, ahead of Toyota Camry. Ford introduces the redesigned 2010 Fusion, including a hybrid version, during next week's press days for the Los Angeles auto show. Ford analysts have been predicting this year will be the first year since crossovers were invented in the mid-1990s that the segment will experience a decline in sales. That decline has already begun, taking Ford's crossovers with it. Ford Edge sales, which had a record month last October, were hit with a nearly 58-percent drop. Still, Ford execs say the Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner gained share in their category. Likewise for the Ford Flex and Lincoln MKS in the midsize luxury crossover segment. Ford sold only 2,017 units of the new Flex - only the Taurus X had fewer sells of Ford's crossovers. Still, Ford's chief marketing exec Jim Farley said about 55 percent of Flex buyers are new customers to Ford and transaction prices for the Flex are higher than the automaker expected. At Mercury, sales plummeted 47.4 percent in October, pushing them 27.3 percent lower for the year. Sales of Lincoln branded vehicles dropped 27.7 percent in October, Volvo reported a mere 3,717 vehicles sold in October, a 52.1 percent drop from a year ago. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. There's a positive side to all this doom and gloom. People aren't spending money they don't have on automobiles they don't necessarily need. Over-extension of credit is one of the major reasons the US is in the economic shape it's currently in. It'll be a bitter pill for the country to swallow in the short term, but, in the long term, the population might get their financial house in order, and NOT having an [unnecessary] car payment (which happens in over 90% of all new car purchases and 100% of all leases) will be part of this process. If this happens, we'll be better for it in the long run. I look at the story you report with mixed emotions.
__________________ "If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people, under the pretence of taking care of them, they must become happy." -THOMAS JEFFERSON 6 days until R&R in Key West |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. exactly , everyone living above thier means. if you can't afford it don't buy it. I am 40 yo and have yet to purchase a brand new vehical, simply because I haven't had the extra income to spare on a new vehical. I dealed with used vehical all my life. but actually things are looking up and I hope to make my first new vehical purchase early next year.
__________________ Real Racecars Do Have Doors!,They're Just Welded Shut! 1955 chevy vintage stockcar Kyle and the #18 M&M's Toyota We Melt the Competition |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Quote:
N-E-V-E-R do that again. To date, I haven't. I always look for a low mileage car about a year or so old, and still in warranty. It works for us. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Anyone suprised? We built a world economy on selling stuff to people that they couldn't afford to the point people were buying Big Macs on credit cards at 21% interest and paying the minimum each month. How long do you think we could keep selling people new $30k-$45k new cars, many of which when they were driven off the lot were already upside down on the loan by nearly the value of the car to begin with. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Wow! I think we may have the next treasury sec or US budget director right here on the forum. Seriously, this concept of not buying if you can't afford it, is what we need to get this economy pointed in the right direction. We have had an economy based on "being sold stuff we don't need, at prices we can't afford. In many sectors of our economy, if it was cheap, it didn't sell. High prices for cars, homes, vacations, TV's, clothes, and even the water we drink; is what many, maybe even most, used to measure someone's worth in this society. How may of us "need" a new Ford or Chevy this year? Maybe if we push the auto industry back to the same level status as the companies who make our appliances, our economy would have a much firmer foundation. I have also been buying cars coming off 2 year low milage leases for up to 40% less than the new cost. In many ways, the auto companies created their own nightmare when they introduced factory leases. Tens of millions of these vehicles hit the market each year and are snapped up by the public instead of a new vehicle. Nascar will still race, even if Ford, Chevy, Dodge, and ???? all pull out. Some on here have called for moving back to the old school. This may be just what is needed to start the revolution. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Quote:
bob, I knew we could agree on something. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. I have never bought a brand new car, neither has my spouse. We did end up purchasing a fairly new car in early 07 and it was maybe 4 months old if that, so the car already dropped in price but it was still without our budget and lucky for us esp. now still it gets decent MPG as he drives a ****load back/forth to work each day. Tons of people overspend and live beyond their means, I however am now one of them.
__________________ Sports Tickets |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. If you ever pay cash for a car and have any willpower at all you'll never finance another. I bought a beater a long time ago and drove it forever while saving money. Ever since then I've paid cash for every vehicle and I go thru them pretty often because of mileage. On a related note the big 3 need to make a car someone wants to buy. They sell trucks 2:1 comapred to cars....make cars people want. May I even suggest (gasp) a full size car, I mean look how popular cars and SUV's are because we sell butt beater cars.... Of course congress is about to pony up to the plate and give them a handout. Too bad. I almost wish one would go under so that 2 could stay in business and become profitable. GM got $50 Billion just last month and today announced in 3 months they'll be out of cash to make payroll and continue operations. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Question: When Chrysler was helped by the government in the past, was the economy bad or were they just having internal trouble? Also what year(s) did that happen? I have a truck I bought used last year and I got a great deal on it. I only had to finance half as I had half down. Since February it has lost at least $7000 in value, and truth be told I can't give it away. Sucks! |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Quote:
Of course they came out with the "K" car immediately and started turning a profit, went on with the mini-van and turned that into a big thing. Anyone believe one of the big 3 is on the verge of doing that now? Oh yeah GM is on the verge of releasing the Volt electric car that has to charged at home...just in time for new "let's bankrupt the coal industry" and the rise in electric rates that will entail.... I'll tell you right now I don't think any of the big 3 have anywhere near Iacocca as a CEO to turn it around. He had his faults but he came on and went head to head with the unions, made cuts, hired engineers to make cars that would sell. Also there's a big difference in today and then. The US Treasury GUARANTEED the loan to Chrylser, they did not loan taxpayer money. Small difference but a significant one. The big 3 want a loan now straight out of the treasury. |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Awe snap! I am just happy to be in the presence of someone else who caught the "bankrupting the coal industry" comment. Thanks for the info, I could have googled it but it is way more fun to learn from real people |
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| Re: Auto sales may be worst in 16 years. Quote:
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