[Quack Attack]

Ohio State Buckeyes: BCS or bust?

By ALEX SMART | July 27, 2008



The Buckeyes start their 2008 campaign looking to complete at least one hat-trick but hoping to avoid another.

Back-to-back losses in BCS championship games obviously hurt a team and a repeat visit for the third consecutive year will be the No. 1 goal in Columbus, but clearly, they don’t want to become the Buffalo Bills of college football – which would be their fate if the make it to the big game and lose again.

Is all the hype surrounding the Buckeyes coming into the 2008 season valid? Are the Buckeyes capable of returning to the championship game?

The line makers make them a solid +300 chance to do so.

The Big Ten conference has been somewhat of a one-horse race as the Buckeye's have gone 22-2 in conference play while capturing three straight titles. Given Ohio State's schedule this year, the Buckeye's should either go 12-0 or 11-1 and barring a catastrophe, should equal Michigan’s record of four straight conference titles..

Schedule:

Aug. 30: Youngstown State – Ohio State has won 29 straight home openers and has not lost to in-state school in 80 years.

Sept. 6: Ohio Bobcats – OSU is 23-1 versus MAC including 5-0 versus Ohio.

Sept. 13: at USC Trojans – Buckeyes are 11-2 SU since 91 versus PAC 10

Sept. 20: Troy Trojans – Ohio State is 43-1 SU at home versus non-conference opposition

Sept. 27: Minnesota Golden Gophers – Buckeyes have won 3 straight Big Ten openers by an average of 33 points.

Oct. 4: at Wisconsin Badgers – Last year Buckeyes came from behind to notch 28 straight points in a 38-17 beatdown.

Oct. 11: Purdue Boilermakers – OSU has won 6 straight at home in this series

Oct. 18: at Michigan State Spartans – Buckeyes are 11-2 SU in their last 13 versus Michigan State

Oct. 25: Penn State Nittany Lions – Since 1933 Buckeyes are 7-0 at home in this series

Nov. 8: at Northwestern Wildcats – OSU is 14-1 SU its last 15 in Evanston

Nov. 15: at Illinois Fighting Illini – Revenge on tap here as Buckeyes went down in flames versus Illinois last season at home.

Nov. 22: Michigan Wolverines – Michigan has lost 6 of the last 7 meetings SU in Columbus.

The entire sports world will focus on the Sept. 13 mega-showdown against USC that'll be certain to have national title implications. The game falls nicely for Ohio State given it will be their third game while only the second for the Trojans. Also, given USC will breaking in a new starting QB and six other new offensive starters, I have no doubt that Ohio State will win this early season clash of the titans—stamping itself as the team to beat.

There are other landmines to worry about. Going to Wisconsin won't be easy and dealing with a road trip to Illinois won't be a plus. The Michigan game is in Columbus, but it comes after going on the road to face Northwestern and the Illini.

If this is the national title contender it's supposed to be, the home schedule, including the date with the Wolverines and the October battles with Purdue and Penn State shouldn't be a problem. Outside of the USC game, the non-conference slate is a breeze, facing Youngstown State, Ohio and Troy. The Buckeyes miss Indiana and Iowa.

With nine starters back on both offense and defense and with one enormous chip on their shoulders for two straight BCS title game disappointments, Ohio State with their vast array of experience and talent have all the ingredients for a title run.

The offense is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Chris Wells at tailback – a prototypical back who will score points in abundance. Wells’ job will be made easier behind a talented offensive line, led by two seniors who will both see action in the NFL in guard Steve Rehring and left tackle Alex Boone. Senior QB Todd Boeckman should have a big year throwing to Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie.

Defensive End Vernon Gholston, who went sixth in the NFL draft, will be a loss for Ohio State’s defense. But given the Buckeyes’ defense was so dominant last year, finishing top in the nation in scoring defense (allowing 12.7 points per game), the loss may not be as detrimental as it would to other college programs.

The defensive talent at Jim Tressel’s disposal would be the envy of many a coach. Two-time All-American linebacker James Laurinaitis is supported with DE Cameron Heyward and corner Malcolm Jenkins.

I have listed some interesting Buckeye trends below:

• Ohio State is 96-0 SU when they score more than 28 points.

• 56-12 off a win, 49-8 ATS in conference games and 12-0 ATS when playing with revenge.

• The Buckeyes are 10-3 ATS their last 13 as home favorites of 10.5 or more points.

• 17-6 ATS against conference opponents since 2005.

• 29-4 SU and 24-8-1 ATS at home in conference play, including 19-1 SU and 17-3 ATS their last 20.

• 21-3 SU and 14-9 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games, including 4-2 ATS in bowl games.

• 5-15 ATS vs. the Fighting Illini the last 20 in this series.

• 6-14 ATS on the road off a double-digit win.

• 6-16 O/U as home faves of -10.5 points or more.