[ThePundit]

If the Mets do repeat as NL East champs, they must hope the bullpen will be as strong as it was last year to assist a starting staff made up mostly of youngsters and reclamation projects. With Pedro Martinez gone for at least half the season, playoff stalwarts, John Maine and Oliver Perez, along with Mike Pelfrey, must pitch effectively to compliment Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez. If this collection of starters can give the team adequate innings, another trip to the playoffs will be in the cards.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2007 edition of the New York Mets, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2006 FINISH (97-65) - First Place (NL East)

KEY OFFSEASON ADDITIONS: OF - Moises Alou; OF - Ben Johnson; IF - Damion Easley; SP/RP - Chan Ho Park; SP/RP - Aaron Sele; RP - Scott Schoeneweis; RP - Ambiorix Burgos; RP - Jorge Sosa

KEY OFFSEASON SUBTRACTIONS: OF - Cliff Floyd; OF - Michael Tucker; IF/OF - Chris Woodward; SP - Steve Trachsel; SP - Victor Zambrano; SP- Brian Bannister; RP - Chad Bradford; RP - Darren Oliver; RP - Roberto Hernandez; RP - Heath Bell

PROJECTED LINEUP: Jose Reyes (SS); Paul Lo Duca (C); Carlos Beltran (CF); Carlos Delgado (1B); David Wright (3B); Moises Alou (LF); Shawn Green (RF); Jose Valentin (2B)

PROJECTED ROTATION: Pedro Martinez (RHP) - will miss the first three/four months; Tom Glavine (LHP); Orlando Hernandez (RHP); John Maine (RHP); Oliver Perez (LHP); Mike Pelfrey (RHP)

PROJECTED CLOSER: Billy Wagner (LHP)

MANAGER: Willie Randolph

INFIELD

The same four who received the bulk of the playing time last season return to man their positions once again. Carlos Delgado spurned the Mets two years ago when he signed with Florida, but solidified the lineup last year, protecting Carlos Beltran and David Wright. Delgado's numbers across the board were extremely similar to his one season with the Marlins, except for his batting average which dipped 36 points to .265, his lowest since 1997.

Kaz Matsui began the season at second, but after the obligatory home run in his opening at-bat, he struggled at the plate batting just .200. Jose Valentin, who was brought over from the Dodgers to pinch hit, took over as the starter and never looked back, clubbing 18 homers and batting .271. More importantly, he stabilized the position defensively committing only six errors. It will be interesting to see if the veteran can withstand the rigors of playing everyday for a full season. That's why New York brought Damion Easley aboard. The utility infielder will most likely start against tough left-handed pitchers.

One other nugget concerning Valentin that bears some watching early in the season could be more mental than physical. Can he overcome striking out with the bases loaded with just one out in the sixth inning of a tied NLCS game seven? Most baseball aficionados look at Beltran as the goat, failing to lift the bat off his shoulders in the ninth inning, but the Mets were trailing by two runs at the time. Valentin had the golden opportunity to give his team the lead with just a sac fly and flat-out choked.

There are no physical or mental problems on the left side of the infield. Shortstop Jose Reyes and third baseman David Wright will be the faces of the franchise for the rest of the decade after both signed long-term contracts last season. Reyes batted .300 for the first time, but more importantly, raised his OBP 54 points to .354. His power numbers also improved from seven to 19 and he even knocked in 81 runs from the leadoff spot.

Wright was having an MVP season until the All-Star Break when he got caught up in "home run derby fever" challenging the likes of Ryan Howard and David Ortiz. Wright connected on just six bombs the final 67 games after ripping 20 prior to the break. Willie Randolph has stated that Wright will bat second in the order at times to give the 24-year-old more at-bats. When that's the case, look for Paul Lo Duca to drop down to six or seven, depending on the lineup.

Speaking of Lo Duca, he'll be working his second season behind the plate for the Mets and the Brooklyn-born catcher will hope to duplicate his fantastic 2006 campaign. The veteran was bothered by an injured left thumb the final four months of the season and still batted .338 after the All-Star break.

OUTFIELD

Beltran finally lived up to his immense talent in 2006 and the Mets brass were thrilled to see its prized 2005 free agent acquisition perform up to expectations. The center fielder produced career-highs in home runs, runs, RBI, walks and slugging percentage. However, one major concern remains and that's his overall numbers at Shea Stadium. Beltran batted just .224 and knocked in only 38 of his 116 RBI at home.

The corner positions will feature the three-headed monster of Alou, Shawn Green and Endy Chavez. Alou was signed to replace Floyd and will give the team another right-handed bat in a top-heavy left-handed hitting lineup. At 40 years of age, Alou will be rested on numerous occasions, but the man can still swing the bat as evidenced by his 22 round trippers in just 345 at-bats last year. He also hit .301 and knocked in an amazing 74 runs playing part-time on a team that finished tied for 10th in the National League in runs scored.

Green was acquired last August and is a youngster on the team at the age of 34. The former first-round pick back in 1991 batted only .257 with New York, but hit .333 in the postseason with three doubles and four RBI.

The Mets are lucky to have super-sub Chavez to call on if either Alou or Green struggle. Chavez almost proved to be the playoff hero with a sensational over-the-wall catch in Game Seven of the NLCS, but it was not to be as St. Louis eventually won the game and the World Series. The former Phillies' castoff batted over .300 while playing exceptional defense, and gives the Mets multiple corner outfield options each and every game.

STARTING ROTATION

The injured shoulder of Martinez will force the 36-year-old to miss the first half of the season. However, Glavine, who took over the "ace" role when Martinez went down, is coming off his finest season in a Mets uniform, winning 15 of 22 decisions. One bit of concern remains and that's how much is left in the southpaw arm of the 20-year veteran. Glavine was just 4-5 after the All- Star Break.

Mid-season acquisition Hernandez proved to be a worthy addition, despite missing the postseason after injuring his calf prior to game one of the NLDS. El Duque, who came to New York in the Jorge Julio trade in late May, pitched effectively with a 9-7 record, and his 4.09 ERA was over two runs better than his 6.11 mark in his two months with Arizona. He did throw 152 1/3 innings, - his highest total since 2000 - so one must wonder how much there is left in the tank.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2006 was youngster Maine. The former Oriole hurler was on the back burner when the Kris Benson for Jorge Julio trade was made with Baltimore two winters ago, but he took center stage in Game Six vs. the Cardinals, allowing just two hits and no runs and out-dueling Chris Carpenter to send the series to a seventh game.

For the season, Maine gave up only 69 hits in 90 innings en route to a 6-5 record and a 3.60 ERA. He'll be looked upon to improve those numbers as the team's number-three starter.

Another trade the Mets pulled off last season gives them this year's fourth starter and that's Perez. Acquired with Roberto Hernandez at the trade deadline, Perez showed his stuff against St. Louis, winning Game Four with his team down two games to one. The former Pirate also started Game Seven and showed his poise once again going six strong innings allowing just four hits and one run.

Perez has been extremely impressive in camp and if he can somehow recapture the form that made him a star in 2004, general manager Omar Minaya will be called a genius for sending Xavier Nady to Pittsburgh for the 26-year-old from Mexico.

The final spot in the rotation belongs to Pelfrey, who got his feet wet last year winning two of his three decisions with a 5.48 ERA. New York's first- round pick in the '04 draft has pitched brilliantly in the spring allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings. If the Wichita State product struggles early, the Mets do have the option of inserting Chan Ho Park or Aaron Sele in his slot.

BULLPEN

This was by far and away the team's strength last season. Not only was New York's ERA (3.04) from the 7th inning on one-half run better than every other team in the National League, it was a full run lower than 11 of the 15 other clubs. Nonetheless, spring time has raised more questions than answers concerning the team's supposed backbone.

Duaner Sanchez, whose fabulous '06 season was cut short at the end of July after separating his shoulder in a taxi cab accident, will not be available until at least August. Apparently the shoulder needs more surgery after a hairline fracture was discovered.

The fracture is of the coracoid bone, which is a small bone in the front of the shoulder to which two tendons and a ligament are attached. Pitching places stress on this bone.

Aaron Heilman will have to manage the 2007 campaign with tendinitis in his pitching elbow, an extremely dicey situation that will bear watching. Despite allowing the home run that virtually eliminated the team from the World Series, Heilman was superb throughout the year teaming with Sanchez as the best set-up combo in the league.

Billy Wagner is another concern. The 36-year-old had his worst season in years, as opponents batted .219 against him, the highest average he's allowed in a full season in his entire career. What's even more troubling was his postseason performance. Wagner's playoff ERA was an unheard of 9.53 and opponents pounded him to the tune of a .370 average.

With Guillermo Mota suspended for 50 games for failing the league's substance abuse policy, the Mets sent Brian Bannister to the Royals for Ambiorix Burgos. The third-year reliever has averaged a strikeout per inning in his two seasons in Kansas City, but opponents batted .288 against him last year. The Mets hoped the flame-throwing right-hander would bridge the gap until Sanchez and Mota get back to their previous roles, but an awful spring has Burgos on the outside looking in as the season approaches.

New York will use Park and Sele in relief as well as rookie Joe Smith. These are troubling signs that the club had not even envisioned back in January. If the Mets have postseason aspirations, the bullpen must perform close to its high 2006 standard and that might be asking a little too much at this stage of the game.

Kansas.com | 03/27/2007 | New York Mets 2007 Preview
ThePundit's prediction: 2nd and WILD CARD in NL East. Their bullpen is strong enough to compensate for a questionable starting rotation. They will definitely acquire a big time pitcher by mid-year and use Lastings Millidge as bait.

[EmpireWF]

I don't know if Sele will be sticking around but at least guys like Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano had great springs.

I'm looking forward to a full season in the rotation for Perez and Maine (and Pelfrey, too).