2008 HMS win predictions?

DuPontFan · #1 (**permalink**) 06-12-2007, 07:24 PM

With JR joining the HMS fold how many wins does everyone think they will rack up together? I'll start 15

Quality88 · #2 (**permalink**) 06-12-2007, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuPontFan

With JR joining the HMS fold how many wins does everyone think they will rack up together? I'll start 15

No comment

jks812 · #3 (**permalink**) 06-12-2007, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuPontFan

With JR joining the HMS fold how many wins does everyone think they will rack up together? I'll start 15

So how many of those do you think Gordon and Johnson will win?

LSC9901 · #4 (**permalink**) 06-12-2007, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuPontFan

With JR joining the HMS fold how many wins does everyone think they will rack up together? I'll start 15

They'll get one win for every race that they cross the finish line first. I think the weatherman has a better chance of predicting the weather correctly than any of us do at guessing the number of wins. To many variables.

Racer Duck · #5 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 11:59 AM

I predict a minimum of 3. 4 if Jr. gets one.

Lefturn · #6 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 01:16 PM

I love it, predict the race outcome, 1 year in advance. I'll try not to complicate it too much.

Okay, there are 32 races x 4 drivers for a total of 128 possible wins. Undoubtedly, mechanical failure will cost about 6 races.

4 plate races means 16 chances to get caught in the big one, gonna say 4 more chances to win gone.

Wrecking will also be a factor, outside of the big one. If racing near #20 or #2 it's possible to get caught up in their mess, so I'm gonna take out 6 more chances.

Cut tires, let's face it, it's a factor. According to my scientific calculations (pulling a number outta my arse) I think 5 more races gone.

Pit road. Loose lugs, penalties, missing the commit cone etc. 7 more races up in smoke.

That leaves 100 chances to win. I'll be generous and say that Hendrick can win 25% of those races so... 25% of 32 = 8 races.

Hendrick will win 8 races in 2008 of which Dale Jr. (who used to run the #8 will win 3 of those and the Championship in 2008. Do you all see the correlation of the number 8?

With logic like that, you can't go wrong... better pin this so that I don't have to dig it up Next November

jks812 · #7 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lefturn

I love it, predict the race outcome, 1 year in advance. I'll try not to complicate it too much.

Okay, there are 32 races x 4 drivers for a total of 128 possible wins. Undoubtedly, mechanical failure will cost about 6 races. 4 plate reaces means 16 chances to get caught in the big one, gonna say 4 more chances to win gone.

Wrecking will also be a factor, outside of the big one. If racing near #20 or #2 it's possible to get caught up in their mess, so I'm gonna take out 6 more chances.

Cut tires, let's face it, it's a factor. According to my scientific calculations (pulling a number outta my arse) I think 5 more races gone.

Pit road. Loose lugs, penalties, missing the commit cone etc. 7 more races up in smoke.

That leaves 100 chances to win. I'll be generous and say that Hendrick can win 25% of those races so... 25% of 32 = 8 races.

Hendrick will win 8 races in 2008 of which Dale Jr. (who used to run the #

will win most of those and the Championship in 2008. Do you all see the correlation of the number 8?

With logic like that, you can't go wrong... better pin this so that I don't have to dig it up Next November

Thought you wasn't gonna complicate it?

Mike24 · #8 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 03:10 PM

If I remember correctly, I predicted Jr to win the cup in 2008.

Now, that situation is more likely.

jks812 · #9 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike24

If I remember correctly, I predicted Jr to win the cup in 2008.

Now, that situation is more likely.

I don't even expect him to win in 2008. He's gonna be getting use to a whole new team, crew members and all that. I think he'll struggle at first until they get the communication and all worked out. Tony Eury is the only one he's really worked with. Jr might tell his new crew chief the same thing he would Tony and this one may think he's speaking in tongues. I say it'll be 2009 before he contends for the title.

LSC9901 · #10 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lefturn

I love it, predict the race outcome, 1 year in advance. I'll try not to complicate it too much.

Okay, there are 32 races x 4 drivers for a total of 128 possible wins. Undoubtedly, mechanical failure will cost about 6 races.

4 plate races means 16 chances to get caught in the big one, gonna say 4 more chances to win gone.

Wrecking will also be a factor, outside of the big one. If racing near #20 or #2 it's possible to get caught up in their mess, so I'm gonna take out 6 more chances.

Cut tires, let's face it, it's a factor. According to my scientific calculations (pulling a number outta my arse) I think 5 more races gone.

Pit road. Loose lugs, penalties, missing the commit cone etc. 7 more races up in smoke.

That leaves 100 chances to win. I'll be generous and say that Hendrick can win 25% of those races so... 25% of 32 = 8 races.

Hendrick will win 8 races in 2008 of which Dale Jr. (who used to run the #8 will win 3 of those and the Championship in 2008. Do you all see the correlation of the number 8?

With logic like that, you can't go wrong... better pin this so that I don't have to dig it up Next November

Hate to be the one to burst your bubble and mess up all your math but there are 36 races each year plus the all star event and then the Bud Shoot Out. Sorry .....

Mike24 · #11 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jks812

I don't even expect him to win in 2008. He's gonna be getting use to a whole new team, crew members and all that. I think he'll struggle at first until they get the communication and all worked out. Tony Eury is the only one he's really worked with. Jr might tell his new crew chief the same thing he would Tony and this one may think he's speaking in tongues. I say it'll be 2009 before he contends for the title.

Are you going out on a limb...

I doubt Jr won't win in 08. He's in great equipment, and even though he will have to get used to a new Crew Chief, he can still drive. With great equipment, he can drive straight to wins.

Lefturn · #12 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LSC9901

Hate to be the one to burst your bubble and mess up all your math but there are 36 races each year plus the all star event and then the Bud Shoot Out. Sorry .....

Doh! I blame Jeff Gordon for my error.

Quality88 · #13 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lefturn

Doh! I blame Jeff Gordon for my error.

Sounds good to me... I'll back you up on that one.

tkj24 · #14 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jks812

I don't even expect him to win in 2008. He's gonna be getting use to a whole new team, crew members and all that. I think he'll struggle at first until they get the communication and all worked out. Tony Eury is the only one he's really worked with. Jr might tell his new crew chief the same thing he would Tony and this one may think he's speaking in tongues. I say it'll be 2009 before he contends for the title.

Who says Tony and Tony Jr won't go with him?

jks812 · #15 (**permalink**) 06-13-2007, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tkj24

Who says Tony and Tony Jr won't go with him?

Tony Jr might. But Teresa has signed Tony Sr to a contract to be over the newly dedicated test team for DEI. So I doubt he'll be going.

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