| Re: 2006 Fantasy Football : Running Backs
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1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Without Drew Bress, the Chargers will run the ball even more than they have in the last two seasons. The unproven Philip Rivers has good velocity and a nice spiral on his throws but doesn’t have a big arm and won’t have much success throwing downfield. He’s more of a game-manager and that’s what he’ll be called on to do. And managing the game, for the Chargers, means handing off to No. 21 and looking for No. 21 in the flat on three-step drops. Tomlinson, with dump-offs and screens, could catch 100 passes again this season. That, in addition to his averages of the last four years - 2,037 total yards and 18 touchdowns - makes him the top running back.
2. Shaun Alexander
With the loss of Steve Hutchinson, Alexander most likely won’t duplicate his 2005 numbers. He relies heavily on his offensive guards to pull on toss plays and create cutback lanes on runs up the middle. Thirty-seven percent of the Seahawks carries were run off left guard and Alexander averaged 4.7 yards per carry running behind Hutchinson. It’s unlikely that Floyd Womack, the former backup, will be able to do as well as his predecessor. Still, the offensive line boasts three potential Pro Bowlers and Mack Strong at fullback. Alexander has enough quickness and vision to utilize the blockers and put up tremendous numbers. In addition, tight end Jerramy Stevens has yet to emerge as a consistent red zone target so Alexander will once again see a ton of carries near the goal line. His durability is also a factor as he’s yet to miss a game in his six-year career.
3. Larry Johnson
He’ll probably be picked first or second in a lot of fantasy drafts, but the retirement of Willie Roaf and Tony Richardson’s departure can’t be overlooked. One of the Chiefs bread ‘n butter running plays was the sweep off left tackle. Roaf would seal the corner and Richardson would lead-block up the sidelines. He won’t average 150 yards per game or score as often as he did in his nine starts last season. But the offensive line is still strong, the scheme remains and Johnson is talented. And without a standout wide receiver, the Chiefs offense will rely on him.
4. Tiki Barber
Though likely not as much as last season (Brandon Jacobs will have a bigger role), Barber will pile up yardage - both rushing and receiving. He’s led the NFL in total yards the last two seasons and last year, came within 39 yards of surpassing Marshall Faulk’s single-season record of 2,429. His touchdown total won’t be as high as that of the other elite backs, but his fantasy value could be boosted with more receptions as Eli Manning, more experienced, will see the field better and check down to him more often. Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey and Tim Carter/Sinorice Moss will help draw coverage downfield and allow Barber to exploit matchups against linebackers underneath.
5. Rudi Johnson
The Bengals have a great offensive line and the prodigious passing attack keeps safeties out of the box. Johnson might see a lot of carries early in the season as Carson Palmer continues to recuperate. Although he’ll likely be substituted with Chris Perry, a better receiver, in long yardage situations, he will have a chance to bolster his touchdown total because the offense lacks a big target in the red zone. He could improve upon his 1,458 yards and 12 touchdowns from a year ago.
6. Steven Jackson
The second-year starter ran for 1,046 yards and totaled 10 touchdowns last year behind a mediocre line, with Jaime Martin and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the bulk of the season and a defense that forced the offense to pass more often than even Mike Martz - who spent much of the season at home and in the hospital - would‘ve liked. This season, the defense has been upgraded (though not by much), the offensive line should be improved and Scott Linehan will utilize Jackson more often, both as a runner and receiver. He’ll also receive a lot of carries from spread formations - as the backs in Minnesota did - and the 6-foot-2, 235-pound back will plow through some defenses.
7. Clinton Portis
(1) He runs behind a stout offensive line. (2) With the addition of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El, the passing game should be even more potent and will attack downfield more often. (3) In 2005, the coaching staff had a better feel for Portis’ strengths than they did in year one, and designed more stretch plays and runs off tackle to take advantage of his speed and vision. With another year in the system, things should only improve in that department. (4) The Redskins offense runs a lot of screens and quick dump passes so Portis will add something in the receiving stat line. However, he might not get as many carries as he did last season when he ran the ball a career-high 352 times.
8. Ronnie Brown
With the changes at quarterback, the passing attack will be much better - even if Joey Harrington has to start a few games - and Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Randy McMichael will allow Brown to not be the opponent’s absolute focal point. He’s fast, runs with good leverage and is an underrated receiver out of the backfield. Nick Saban believes in running the ball and this season, he won’t have to split carries with Ricky Williams. Barring injury, don’t expect Travis Minor take many opportunities from Brown.
9. Ron Dayne
Gasp! Yes, at No. 9 and I didn‘t forget to add a zero. Dayne is a power back who has very good speed for his size and is capable of outrunning linebackers and overpowering defensive backs. And although he hasn’t been a starter, he has been durable, having missed just two games in his career because of injury. Dayne, obviously, is not without flaw. The talent is there, but like a locomotive, he takes time to get going. He’s got the top speed of a Lamborghini with the 0-60 of a tricycle. That’s why with the Giants he’d get tackled for loss so often, earning the nickname “No Gain Dayne.” In order for his carries to be productive, he needs his line to create for him a clear lane and a few steps to build momentum. It’s a lot to ask, but the Denver o-line specializes in that. When given the proverbial inch, he takes a lot of yards. The Broncos are a run-heavy team and he will have the opportunity to compile impressive rushing totals. Be warned though, Mike Shanahan can be fickle about running backs and at some point, he will be tempted by Tatum Bell’s game-breaking speed. If you draft Dayne, it would be wise to select Bell in the later rounds.
10. Edgerrin James
The numbers notwithstanding, James hasn’t been the same since rupturing his ACL in 2001. The breakaway speed and burst is no longer there and he’s relied more on power and vision to compile the 3,056 yards he has in the last two seasons. He also took advantage of the Colts’ domineering offensive line and the unstoppable passing game. Despite the excellence of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, James’ numbers will suffer. The Cardinals offensive line ranked 32nd last season, surrendering the most sacks, having the fewest yards rushing and the worst yards per carry average (3.2) in the entire league. Also, the play at quarterback won’t be consistent - certainly not as consistent as Manning’s - whether it’s Kurt Warner, John Navarre or Matt Leinart starting. James will certainly perform better than J.J. Arrington and Marcel Shipp did in 2005, but don’t expect impressive rushing totals. But, he is a proven veteran and adds some versatility. He could rush for 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns and catch 50 passes, which is solid production.
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07-29-2006, 10:52 AM
Re: 2006 Fantasy Football : Running Backs 
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