[Gotham Dark Knight]

2006 Fantasy MLB Sleeper Picks
Okay, it’s that time of year. Spring is in the air. Spring training is on the way and you are preparing for your league’s Fantasy Baseball Draft. And while most people can adequately prepare the top of their draft board with a list of the best and brightest that major league baseball has to offer, it is the bottom half of the list that will give most people trouble. The bottom half is where you have to separate the diamonds in the rough, from the over-rated former superstars hanging onto one more season, as well as the over hyped rookies and prospects. So if you are too busy watching the World Baseball Classic to do your due diligence on this years crop of potential sleepers, let me help you out with a list of the top Sleeper pick options for the 2006 season.

2006 Sleeper Picks:

B.J. Upton, Devil Rays, SS
It’s hard to call the second overall pick in the 2002 a sleeper pick, but with defense being an issue, he is stuck behind Julio Lugo in the Devil Ray line-up. Still the upside on Upton is high. His quick wrists and strength despite a small frame, gives him a lively bat that could translate to a .300 average and 20 homers over the course of a full season. This five-tool player is also equipped with enough speed to steal +30 bases in a season. Limited to just 159 at bats last year, Upton collected 14 extra base hits and 4 steals. In keeper leagues he is definitely worth the gamble.

Carlos Quentin, Diamondbacks, OF
I know what you are thinking, Carlos who? Carlos Quentin. Arizona’s 2003 1st round draft pick out of Stanford. Carlos under went Tommy john elbow surgery right after college, and recovered well enough to post 42 homeruns and a .316 average in his two years of minor league ball. Carlos is also aggressive enough at the plate to have set a minor league record by being hit by a pitch 43 times in one season. A crowded Arizona outfield featuring Gonzalez, Green and Bynes still stand in the way of Quentin getting substantial playing time, but Carlos will hit his way into the line-up over the course of the season.

Justin Morneau, Twins, 1B
Okay stop laughing. Morneau was over hyped coming into the 2005 season, and then had an injured plague year that accounted for a pitiful .239 average and 22 homers in 141 games. Somewhere halfway between last year’s pre-season hype and his disastrous 2005 season is where the real Morneau lies. If you had him on your team last year and saw him struggle, you will probably ignore him this year, which makes him the perfect sleeper pick for someone else. Roll the die with Justin and he will reward you with a +30 homerun year.

Prince Fielder, Brewers, 1B
It was a hard decision to add Fielder to this list of sleepers since odds are that a good number of people have heard of him by now and he might get over hyped in some leagues. But just in case he slips through amiss a strong group of first basemen, keep Prince in mind for the later rounds. The Brewers traded away Overbay to make room for Prince at first. Though he still needs work with his defense, no one can deny that Cecil Fielder’s kid has power. Already this Spring Prince has sent one homerun past the 450 ft mark. Fielder was consistent enough in the minors to put up +20 HRs in A, AA, and AAA ball. There is no reason to believe that he will not do the same this year at the Major league level.

Justin Verlander, Tigers, SP
Verlander was the second player taken over all in the 2004 draft. Though marked with an enormous amount of talent, Justin had a poor showing in a stint with the Tigers last July. Those two starts produced an ERA over 7.00, which might just help mask the fact that Verlander is one of the strongest pitching prospects coming up this year. This power pitcher will feel right at home in Detroit’s pitcher friendly ball park, so expect that ERA to go down below 4.00 if he pitches for the club this year.

Deep Sleeper:

Delmon Young, Devil Rays, OF
Whether or not the Devil Rays bring Delmon on for a full season in 2006 remains to be seen. Yet in the near future this former first pick over all (2003) will be tearing the cover of the ball. If you want a real gamble with a sky-high ceiling of potential, then Delmon is your man. Once he sticks in the majors, Delmon will out hit his brother Dmitri.

So if you weren’t able to do your homework on sleeper picks prior to the draft, relax, one of these six players is bound to slip through your draft without notice and become a late round sleeper pick for your team. Good luck and happy drafting.

[Lefty Noob]

Good stuff, Gotham. I for one am definitely keeping a sharp eye on Prince Fielder.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by Lefty Noob

Good stuff, Gotham. I for one am definitely keeping a sharp eye on Prince Fielder.

Yes, but that's my point on Fielder, you already have a lot of people keepingthier eyes on him, so he might go from sleeper to over hyped in record time.

Another kid making a bit of noise this Spring is Cinnicinati 3B Edwin Encarnacion, who has been on a tare this Spring...the 23 yearold has a .481 Average 5 HRs and 12 RBI's so far. He is projected for at least 25 HRs if he is able to stay with the club and I do not see why that wouldn't happen. The word on him is that he needs to cut down on his strikeouts to stay with the club, but right now I wouldn't bet against him.

He is projected to be a mid round pick in most leagues, but in most leagues everyone is just going to look at last years stats, and he will come in under the radar having hit only .232 with 9 homers in 211 at bats. So he probably will slip in most leagues. Keep an eye out for him.

[Grozny]

Richie Weeks, Brewers, 2nd

There are a lot of potential sleepers out there but I think he will have a break out kind of year. He is a potential 20/20 guy, who has the ability to raise his average from .239 (last year) to around .280 or so. Also, Brewers home stadium is a hitters ballpark. He'll be someone to look out for if he can just cut down a bit on the K's.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by Grozny

Richie Weeks, Brewers, 2nd

There are a lot of potential sleepers out there but I think he will have a break out kind of year. He is a potential 20/20 guy, who has the ability to raise his average from .239 (last year) to around .280 or so. Also, Brewers home stadium is a hitters ballpark. He'll be someone to look out for if he can just cut down a bit on the K's.

I hear you Grozny, I came close to adding Weeks in a "two person" format with Fielder for the Brewers... I am high on this guy. He hit for a high average in college, so I think he is much, much better than a .239 hitter, and his 13 homers and 15 steals in just 96 games translates well to at least a 20/20 offering for a second baseman. I would like to see his fielding improve though. He was around a .950 fielding percentage. Still all around, its hard to not give him at least a "light sleeper" nod.

[BigBadBuc]

I don't know how deep 2nd base is but I'm thinkin' that this is Jose Castillo's breakout year.

BBB

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by BigBadBuc

I don't know how deep 2nd base is but I'm thinkin' that this is Jose Castillo's breakout year.

BBB

Castillo jumped out to a huge may last year, hitting .337 for the month...but he tailed off signifcantly after the all-star break only hitting .255 the rest of the way. He is also coming back from injury...so he there are more question marks with him than with the Rickie Weeks.
Still, the kid shows some pop in his bat, though for a middle infielder you will not get a lot of steals from him.

[wedge]

Oh wise one...Will Stephen Drew be a good sleeper pick this year or next year?

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by wedge

Oh wise one...Will Stephen Drew be a good sleeper pick this year or next year?

wedge let me shake that magic eight ball for you...The answer is "Doubtful"...Look Stephen Drew is cool...he is doing all the right things this Spring, and who knows with Craig Counsell having to recover from injuries, the door might be open for Drew....I still think he will start in the minors for the year. But if you want a Diamondback that's a good bet to stick with the club this year, try Conor Jackson 1B...He looks like the real deal and will probably get the nod over Tony Clark....Hey, jsut remember if I am wrong, blame the magic eight ball.

[youppi]

Edwin Encarnacion definitely shows promise. But so does Andy Marte and a lot of other guys. Unfortunately, you have to be careful who you choose because these guys will not be able to help your team for the long haul that is the major league baseball season. Freel and Aurilia will share time with Encarnacion in Cincinnati. And unless something happens to Aaron Boone, Andy Marte will spend most of this season in the minors. These are definitely 2 great picks for 2007, I'm not so sure about this season.

Also, for those of you that are familiar with Abraham Nunez and Gabe Gross, you know not to put too much stock in Spring stats...

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by youppi

Edwin Encarnacion definitely shows promise. But so does Andy Marte and a lot of other guys. Unfortunately, you have to be careful who you choose because these guys will not be able to help your team for the long haul that is the major league baseball season. Freel and Aurilia will share time with Encarnacion in Cincinnati. And unless something happens to Aaron Boone, Andy Marte will spend most of this season in the minors. These are definitely 2 great picks for 2007, I'm not so sure about this season.

Also, for those of you that are familiar with Abraham Nunez and Gabe Gross, you know not to put too much stock in Spring stats...

Youppi if there was no risk involved they would all be in the top rounds ...that's the thing with sleeper picks...you are hoping for the best of a player with a high upside who might just be slipping through because of risks and unknowns...I am high on that kid Andy Marte too...he is worth keeping an eye out for...and Freel when he plays can do wonders on the base path...also worth a low pick...as for Spring stats, if its combined with a history of strong showing in the minors or a strong last half of the season, its probably worth a risk... A good example was Ken Griffey Jr. in his rookie year....he tore it up in the Spring...but he also had been lookig good in the minor up to that point.

[youppi]

Spring stats are really not a good performance indicator...for every success story, there are 10 guys that had great springs and went on to do nothing...and this year, it is even more extreme. The talent in Spring Training is so diluted due to the WBC that guys like Howard, Marte and Encarnacion are tearing it up on the same minor league talent that they beat up on in the minors. All I am saying is to be wary of Spring stats as this year especially, it is not necessarily telling of what will happen in the MLB regular season.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by youppi

Spring stats are really not a good performance indicator...for every success story, there are 10 guys that had great springs and went on to do nothing...and this year, it is even more extreme. The talent in Spring Training is so diluted due to the WBC that guys like Howard, Marte and Encarnacion are tearing it up on the same minor league talent that they beat up on in the minors. All I am saying is to be wary of Spring stats as this year especially, it is not necessarily telling of what will happen in the MLB regular season.

Youppi my man, you are missing the point entirely...we are not calling out the next All-Star, we are just selecting "Sleeper picks"...and for that a player's second half of last season along with what spring they are having is indicator enough...Am I saying Marte is a lock for the All-Star game this year?..Heavens no!...but the man has major potential, he hit 20 homers last year in the minor, (though he struck out +80 times)...still if I had to take wild stab at a sleeper...he qualifies for that! ...Howard happens to have hit well last year and carried it into the spring...can you say All-Star?...nope...can you say guy with mega pop in his swing?..yep...

Encarnacion most major baseball scouting systems have projected as a +25 homer "potential" guy...Does that mean his potential goes up or down with each swing in Spring...Nope...But each swing of Spring should reassure you on whether or not you want to gamble on him as a...what's the word now?...come on...you can say it..."S...L...E...E...P...E...R .....P...I...C...K"

How else would you evaluate a sleeper if not on potential?...how else would you weigh the potential without the minors or spring...but hey man, for you...lets ask the Magic 8-ball...a good indicator as any...here we go...Magic 8-ball, will Encarnacion be a great sleeper selection?...(***Shake-Shake***)... "Better Not Tell You Now"...there you go...the Magic 8 ball has spoken...that certainly carries more clout than Spring Training....an exact science if there ever was one...

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Yahoo Fantasy Upgrades Encarnacion...


UPGRADES

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds – If there was any doubt about his hold on to the starting job, he's quickly erased it with five quick homers in just 28 spring at-bats. Encarnacion's profile is the same as a lot of the Reds – he'll strike out a ton and could hit .250 or less – but if he can find a way to hit 25 or so out of the park, fantasy owners will probably get a profit on what they pay in March.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

(3/19/06)

Dewon Brazelton SP, Padres – It's still very early, but you have to be encouraged by Brazelton's initial work with the new club (eight innings, seven hits, two runs, one walk, 11 strikeouts). He was a highly-touted prospect who fizzled in Tampa Bay, but it's too early to write off Brazelton for good, given that he's still just 25 and set to work in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The mixed crowd can still wait a bit on Brazelton before buying in; for NL-only players, see if you can snag him for a buck, or in the reserve draft.

Brazelton raises his stock slightly...worth keeping an eye on him...