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Old 11-04-2006, 10:33 PM
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EmpireWF EmpireWF is offline
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BCS Championship Analyzed

Have some time on my hands and thought I'd give a look-see into the BCS Rankings and who has a legit shot at possibly being in the National Championship game. So, right off the bat, we'll be eliminating all 2-loss teams. Going by the rankings as of Halloween, only the top 13 teams are considered. Sorry Boise State. With this week's games we can also eliminate West Virginia, Tennessee and Rutgers (even if undefeated, won't get there).

That leaves Ohio State (10-0), Michigan (10-0), Louisville (8-0), Florida (8-1), Auburn (9-1), Texas (9-1), USC (7-1), Notre Dame (8-1), California (8-1) and Arkansas (8-1).

Let's go more in-depth into remaining games:


Ohio State (10-0)
@ Northwestern
vs. Michigan #2

Michigan (10-0)
@ Indiana
@ Ohio State #1

Louisville (8-0)
@ Rutgers #15
vs. South Florida
@ Pittsburgh
vs. Connecticut

Florida (8-1)
vs. South Carolina
vs. Western Carolina
@ Florida State

Auburn (9-1)
vs. Georgia
@ Alabama

Texas (9-1)
@ Kansas State
vs. Texas A&M #21

USC (7-1)
vs. Oregon #24
vs. California #10
vs. Notre Dame #11
@ UCLA

Notre Dame (8-1)
@ Air Force
vs. Army
@ USC #9

California (8-1)
vs. UCLA
@ Arizona
@ USC #9
vs. Stanford

Arkansas (8-1)
vs. Tennessee #8
@ Mississippi State
vs. LSU #13



Looking at the schedules, it appears each team safe for the Ohio State/Michigan winner could lose at least one game. So realistic possibilities:

-Michigan and Ohio State end up playing each other in a rematch.
-Ohio State over Michigan, Louisville wins out and Buckeyes vs. Cardinals
-Florida vs. Auburn SEC title game winner plays the OSU/Michigan winner
-Arkansas could get themselves in the spotlight by beating Tennessee, LSU and Florida in the SEC Title game. Probably won't happen.
-Southern Cal, Notre Dame, California and Texas all have too steep a hill to climb.

My prediction at this point is the BCS Championship game will be played between the Florida/Auburn winner and the winner of Michigan/Ohio State. No matter if Louisville or Rutgers or Boise State is undefeated.
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