[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Resorting to trying to discredit the poster instead of the argument.

This from a man that tried to discredit the system???...oh please...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

I have already sufficiently discredited the completion percentage;

By saying he had the best one in the league...or by saying that indeed it has improved over the 5 years drastically?...which one...Are you sure you understand the word discredit? Plenty of guys dumping passes...none to the tune of 68%...which is all of what less than 3% off the NFL record.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

however, the lower interception percentage is able to be explained just as easily. If Carr is dumping off a significant amount of time, then his interception percent will logically be inflated as well. Because, by definition and design, a dump off is a low-risk pass that puts the onus on the receiver to get yards after the catch.

Huh, and here I thought it meant he was making sound decisions by not throwing it away into coverage...silly me...surely it can't mean that huh?...I mean the reason he dumps it off is what?...one lack of a line...two, the D sits on the passing game cause they lost their tail back...three, he is not throwing into coverage and getting what the D lets him get...

But hey, if the simplistic analysis that he jsut dumps it turns you on...go for it...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

We'll get back to the QB Rating later....

Oh goody!

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Yes, I'm quite certain that both Gary Kubiak and I are well-aware of the statistics. ....

Could have fooled me...you have been arguing about observations and mechanics for umpteen posts...I hope Kubiak is a bit quicker to take into account the stats portion of the analysis...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

It just so happens that the former is widely-regarded as one of the elite quarterback gurus in the NFL. When Kubiak is noncommital on Carr, it should speak volumes more than statistics.

...and you would be the second of those gurus I assume right?... I mean for all the talk on mechanics since college, you must have the resume out for a few NFL position...and Kubiak, your buddy is the reference right?...am I close?...cause its one hell of a high horse you seem to be on...I thought I'd gamble and try to guess its because you are a QB guru...right?...did I win the prize?

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

I know the forumlae for both the QB Rating and the Passer Rating, but I don't pretend to be an expert on it that can analyze it. I tend to believe that professional statisticians that have done it for decades know maybe just a tad bit more on the subject that either of us.

Same professionals you discredited with the rating system they came up with or a different batch all together???...pray tell...But you are in luck, we are giving extra credit for the correct use of the word formulae...so its not all bad...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

For the record:

.

This ought to be good...let me pull up a chair...okay, I am ready...

Completion Percentage
CMP% = 302/442 = 68.33
CMP% = 68.33 - 30.00 = 38.33
CMP% = 38.33 (.05) = 1.917

Average Yards Gained Per Attempt
YPA = 2767/442 = 6.26
YPA = 6.26 - 3.00 = 3.26
YPA = 3.26 (.25) = .815

Percentage of Touchdowns
TD% = 11/442 = 2.49
TD% = 2.49 (.2) = .498

Percentage of Interceptions
INT% = 12/442 = 2.71
INT% = 2.71 (.25) = .678
INT% = 2.375 - .678 = 1.697

QB Rating
QB RAT = 1.917 + .815 + .498 + 1.697 = 4.927
QB RAT = 4.927 / 6 = .8212
QB RAT = .8212 (100) = 82.12

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

What I see is an inflated completion percentage and interception percentage influencing the final outcome of the equation.

And once again you would wrong...why is that?...well, glad you asked...the system is weighed equally (or as equal as it gets) and yet the ideal for the completition percentage is the one which has never been reached... the high being Kenny Anderson who fell short...thus it is the hardest ideal for a QB to reach...

Thus even while dumping to backs, Carr is still at a virtual disadvantage compare to the "ideal that the formula is based on"...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Carr is an accurate, smart passer,

Good, so we can add accurate to the fact that you already said he makes good decision and has good vision...hey now, we are making progress...baby stepping towards reality...I like it!

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

but I would venture to say he is Peyton Manning territory with those values, which is far-fetched.

See, I am a big Peyton fan...big...but this is the same Peyton that threw more than a dozen away in the playoffs by forcing it into coverage right?...

It is what it is...which is the man is an accurate passer that makes good reads and does not force it down field...that much you have given me in this debate...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Now, average yards per attempt and touchdown percentage hinder the final equation, yes, but it just goes to show you how the system is flawed without simple observation.

Does it hinder the equation?...sure...should it...sure...the name of the game is to move the chains without turnover....Is it still fair, yep...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Again, I would still take a professional statistician employed by the NFL or a media outlet opinions on it over anyone else.

well if that is not an easy out...the old, "we are not expert and this is for experts to decide"...I am at a loss...I thought you and Kubiak were gurus...my bad...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

It is painfully obvious that David Carr is not a 68% passer. Since you are hung up on statistics, that is tops in the NFL.

Lets see, he is the top in the NFL (for last season at least) and he did get 68%...and you called him accurate above...and he has improved over 5 years on a steady basis...hmmmm...painfully obvious that you are reaching there a bit...I would say, without reservation, that your rather bias analysis is less accurate then Carr's passing...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Are telling me with a straight face that he is just as accurate of a passer as Peyton Manning?

Yes, little seperates their accuracy on any given Sunday...now if you are talking about the ability to change a play at the line, read a defense, have time to throw...have good receivers and a back etc...then world apart...as far as accuracy when throwing...right now little seperates the two...After all, its not Carr that got his butt picked during the playoffs left and right.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

This argument did nothing to influence me on my evaluation of David Carr. I knew since college that he has solid field vision, and generally won't make costly decisions.

you added accuracy above...and the argument was, "would the Bears be better off with him over Rex"...and with you giving ground on field vision, accuracy, decision making, and the fact he had a bad line, and no backs last season...I think you made one hell of an argument on my behalf...for which I thank you of course.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

I know it. Who is in the position to analyze the metric the NFL uses? That would be...neither of us.

Huh?...now you speak on behalf of my math skills and my ability to analyze a metric...making assumptions there aren't we?...LOL

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

It is shaky ground if you want to use it as a yard stick as well. In order for it to be a accurate yard stick, every factor would have to be unchanged in order to negate values that strongly influence the outcome (i.e. system and overall talent). If not, one is not going to be able to isolate the relative impact of an independent value..

Oh brother...the yard stick is as fair a metric as there is...once again...provide me with a better metric...and since the NFL in its collective analytical wisdom as kept it around since 1973, and since you just told me who are we to question the NFL, then yes, its as good a metric as any...we could however debate the likelyhood of any of those given variables changing the outcome of the equation and by what percentage it will most likely change by.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

So his QB Rating should stay within the five point range he has had for the past three years as everything balances out?..

His QB rating has done what overall...improved...has it improved much...yes...would it had improved more given a better team, yes...that much is certain.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

The 6.3 points he went down from 2004 to 2005 also works for QB Rating. Again, I can spin numbers to work in favor as well...

Do you actually read what we write???...Because I could have sworn we went over this...but in case ADD is kicking in...he was sacked 68 times in 2005...almost 19 more than in 2004...the conclusion..he was running for his life...and yet certain areas did improve...its okay man, I have no problem repeating myself for you...but if you actually read it the first time, we could move it along a bit faster.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

But, now you are finally admitting that statistics are good supplemental evidence. ...

I admit the following...in case of varied opinion based on pure observation from someone with a layman's grasp of the game, statistics provide a much better yard stick than observation...and rather than guess what I admit to...try asking...I am more than happy to share what I think with you.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

If one purely looks at David Carr's and Rex Grossman's average yards per attempt, they take Grossman hands down; however, when one watches them, they see the external factors exerting themselves on the system. Same thing goes for the TD%....

Lets finish the thought...when you add that factor to Carr's better rating, accuracy, field vision and decision making...you have a better QB than what's in Chicago...hate it when you take the thought and not complete it...lucky I am here for you man.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

If numbers are the basis of your argument, and you state that his number stays about the same, then how are you arguing for improvement? ....

once more just for you...his numbers have improved 69 to 82 in Rating...52 to 68 in comp %...2005 was a bit of fluke due to a great big rise in sacks...

So, yes, based on stats he has improved...if not he would not as you said had the highest % comp in the NFL or cut back his pick % etc.

I am sure I will have to repeat the numbers for you next post...eventually you may remember them...

...lucky I am here for you man.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

One could argue the trend is inconclusive.

....

One could...it would make one wrong to argue it...but one could argue anything I suppose.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

He has improved statistically. However, he has regressed on the field.

....

by regress I am going to go out on a limb and say you mean he was running for his dear life to keep from getting sacked for the team he played for, while at the same time praying for the return of his running back...If that is what you mean, then sure.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

I was sarcastically spinning numbers. I don't for a second believe that Grossman is Carr's superior.

....

Then why argue that you are not sold on Carr being a better replacement for Rex, which is what started the debate...

But lets remind you of what you have said...

1) Carr has good field vision
2) Carr is an accurate passer
3) Carr makes good decisions
4) Carr curently plays for a bad team

Hmmm...sounds like this Carr fellow is one heck of a QB...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Glad to see you are learning the power of observation over statistics, though.

....

Yep, I have keenly observed that you have given a lot of ground on Carr...I have observed that you do not remember the improvements he has made in rating or % comp...I have observed you say that Carr is better than Rex...gotta admit, I am liking this observation bit.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Laugh if you will, but the NFL is based on observation. Statistics mean very little in evaluating talent.....

LOL...tell that to the man holding the stop watch at the NFL combine...it will go something like this...

"No, no, no, jsut cause he ran a 5.2 does not mean he does not have good mechanics when he runs...the watch doesn't mean a thing...he looks like a running back from here..."

Did I capture the moment for you?

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Again, I was sarcastically spinning numbers to get you to come to realization that other factors impact statistics, which makes the power of observation all the more vital.

.....

Again, I am presenting the numbers without spin...the sarcasm on my part is purely to make it more fun for the other readers....sorry to hear you have to spin yours...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

And when one has observed David Carr, they can tell that he is much closer to regression than he is improvement.

.....

Geez, that is why...lets go through it again!

1) You called him better than Rex
2) you said he has good vision
3) you said he makes good decisions
4) you said he was an accurate passer

I would seriously look up the word regression...somehow I don't think it means what you think it means.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

That's the point. You can't talk numbers and win this argument.

I have already won the argument (see points 1-4 above)...I am just having fun now...

[Notorious C.L.E.]

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

By saying he had the best one in the league...or by saying that indeed it has improved over the 5 years drastically?...which one...Are you sure you understand the word discredit? Plenty of guys dumping passes...none to the tune of 68%...which is all of what less than 3% off the NFL record.

No one dumps off near the amount of passes that David Carr does. Obviously, a quarterback should complete passes that are closer to the line of scrimmage.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Huh, and here I thought it meant he was making sound decisions by not throwing it away into coverage...silly me...surely it can't mean that huh?...I mean the reason he dumps it off is what?...one lack of a line...two, the D sits on the passing game cause they lost their tail back...three, he is not throwing into coverage and getting what the D lets him get...

But hey, if the simplistic analysis that he jsut dumps it turns you on...go for it...

Yes, Carr lacks a stable offensive line, but him holding onto the bar far too long and running into the teeth of the defense does not help either. The defense can sit on the passing game because Carr didn't do much to stretch the field this season. Granted, pressure was around him, but it doesn't stop great NFL quarterbacks from jumping at the opportunity to go downfield with one-on-one coverage on their number one receiver.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Could have fooled me...you have been arguing about observations and mechanics for umpteen posts...I hope Kubiak is a bit quicker to take into account the stats portion of the analysis...

The NFL is not based on popular statistics, they may use in-depth statistical analysis as a supplement, but never as primary evidence. Those would be the videotapes. Mechanically, Carr has regressed. He is anticipating pressure and throwing off his back foot. His realease point is varying from throw-to-throw, going away from his three-stepped release that he had in college.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

...and you would be the second of those gurus I assume right?... I mean for all the talk on mechanics since college, you must have the resume out for a few NFL position...and Kubiak, your buddy is the reference right?...am I close?...cause its one hell of a high horse you seem to be on...I thought I'd gamble and try to guess its because you are a QB guru...right?...did I win the prize?

Gary Kubiak is an elite quarterback guru and when he has more confidence in Sage Rosenfels, it should tell you something. No, I don't pretend to be a quarterback guru, but I have played the position.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

And once again you would wrong...why is that?...well, glad you asked...the system is weighed equally (or as equal as it gets) and yet the ideal for the completition percentage is the one which has never been reached... the high being Kenny Anderson who fell short...thus it is the hardest ideal for a QB to reach...

Which does not change the fact that David Carr's completion percentage of 68% is very much inflated, and thus, weighing heavily in the overall equation.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Good, so we can add accurate to the fact that you already said he makes good decision and has good vision...hey now, we are making progress...baby stepping towards reality...I like it!

He is a pinpoint short spread passer. His accuracy is solid at the intermediate length. Downfield, he can get erratic because of his tendency to float balls.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

well if that is not an easy out...the old, we are not expert and this is for experts to decide...I am at a loss...I thought you and Kubiak were gurus...my bad...

Again, I don't feel qualified to properly analyze the ins-and-outs of statistics. I just know that several well-esteemed statisticians have voiced their disapproval of the QB Rating as a crutch.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Lets see, he is the top in the NFL (for last season at least) and he did get 68%...and you called him accurate above...and he has improved over 5 years on a steady basis...hmmmm...painfully obvious that you are reaching there a bit...I would say, without reservation, that your rather bias analysis is less accurate then Carr's passing...

Through observation, David Carr is not the most accurate passer in the NFL. You can ask anyone, I think very few will agree with you and your statistics.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Yes, little seperates their accuracy on any given Sunday...now if you are talking about the ability to chance a play at the line, read a defense, have time to throw...have good receivers and a back etc...then world apart...as far as accuracy when throwing...right now little seperates the two...After all, its not Carr that got his butt picked during the playoffs left and right.

Manning has pinpoint accuracy at all three levels. In the short range, it's very close. However, as you move to the next two levels, Manning begins to separate himself.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

you added accuracy above...and the argument was, "would the Bears be better off with him over Rex"...and with you giving ground on field vision, accuracy, decision making, and the fact he had a bad line, and no backs last season...I think you made one hell of an argument on my behalf...for which I thank you of course.

Lets finish the thought...when you add that factor to Carr's better rating, accuracy, field vision and decision making...you have a better QB than what's in Chicago...hate it when you take the thought and not complete it...lucky I am here for you man.

I agreed that the Bears would be better off with Carr than Grossman, but it depended on what they had to give. If it was a day two pick, I would probably jump at it, but not for a day one. His mechanics and confidence are far too shaky at the moment.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

once more just for you...his numbers have improved 69 to 82 in Rating...52 to 68 in comp %...2005 was a bit of fluke due to a great big rise in sacks...

So, yes, based on stats he has improved...if not he would not as you said had the highest % comp in the NFL or cut back his pick % etc.

Once more just for you, his completion percentage and interception per attempt numbers are obviously helped by dumpoffs.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Then why argue that you are not sold on Carr being a better replacement for Rex, which is what started the debate...

Because his mechanics and confidence are reason enough for me to not be sold on the Bears giving up significant value for him. The debate actually started when you called Carr great.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Geez, that is why...lets go through it again!

1) You called him better than Rex
2) you said he has good vision
3) you said he makes good decisions
4) you said he was an accurate passer

I would seriously look up the word regression...somehow I don't think it means what you think it means.

1.) It isn't too hard to be better than Rex.
2.) Generally, he does have good vision. He has shown that he has a hard time seeing the deep, far perimeter though.
3.) Yes, he makes good decisions. He won't force the ball into traffic too much.
4.) He is an accurate short passer. Intermediately, he is solid. His accuracy with the deep ball can be erratic.

You failed to mention anything about his mechanics, which have noticeably declined, and there was nothing about his rattled confidence above either.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

I have already won the argument (see points 1-4 above)...I am just having fun now...

Since your all about number crunching, I figured I would do some in-depth number research just for you. The following is in-depth statistical breakdown of David Carr at all three levels in 2006:

Short: 260/322, 1892 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT.
Intermediate: 33/59, 553 YDS, 4 TD, 7 INT.
Deep: 9/28, 322 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT.
Other: 0/30, 0 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT.

The statistics have verified what I have been saying all along. He is an excellent short passer. As you can tell through simple mathmetics, over 70% of his total passes were short. Of those, he completed 80% of them. Certainly respectable, but not otherworldly.

However, the decrease in numbers after that is telling. At the intermediate level, he completed just 56% of his passes and had more picks than touchdowns. His deep accuracy is among the worst in the league I would venture, completing just 32% of them. Other counts for the balls which were thrown away.

Have fun.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Oh hell…you haven't beaten the dead horse enough yet…very well, in for a penny, in for a pound...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

No one dumps off near the amount of passes that David Carr does. Obviously, a quarterback should complete passes that are closer to the line of scrimmage. .

Once again you fail to take into account that no one gets dumped 45-70 times a season on a regular basis…If he doesn't dump short that number would rise drastically to the point of bodily harm…I mean you are aware how often the man gets killed…and without a running game, pray tell what would you have him do, throw into coverage???

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Yes, Carr lacks a stable offensive line .

Stable?...I really think the words you are looking for is none existent…as in no one home for the past five years...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

but him holding onto the bar far too long and running into the teeth of the defense does not help either..

I believe Kubiak's real knack on him is his footwork…not how long he holds the ball…Kubiak gets on all his QBs a lot about turnovers…thus holding the ball a long time while being a QB for Kubiak comes hand in hand.
On a side note, Kubiak is also a first class jerk who loves to "dress down his QBs in public" because it was done to him and he responded well to it…thus the guru fails to see that there might just be different strokes for different folks.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

The defense can sit on the passing game because Carr didn't do much to stretch the field this season. Granted, pressure was around him, but it doesn't stop great NFL quarterbacks from jumping at the opportunity to go downfield with one-on-one coverage on their number one receiver...

Okay, well, the topic was Carr being a good QB and a good fit for the Bears…since he has been dumped 249 times in 5 years you nor Kubiak for that matter really knows what he can do downfield given enough time, a good back and recievers beyond Andre Johnson.
You have already admitted to him being a good QB…so I guess you have to jumpt the debate over to the word "great"…geez, win won debate and a second one breaks out…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

The NFL is not based on popular statistics, they may use in-depth statistical analysis as a supplement, but never as primary evidence. Those would be the videotapes. Mechanically, Carr has regressed. He is anticipating pressure and throwing off his back foot. His realease point is varying from throw-to-throw, going away from his three-stepped release that he had in college. ...

Never as primary evidence?...you fail to read the passage on time in the 40 didn't you?...the hell with the combined and college stats…we have video yell the coaches…what more primary evidence do we need…
Footwork has been an issue…though the stats (primary, secondary, for the sake of giggles or otherwise) still shows the man has improved over the past five years…the two are mutually exclusive…For example Jeff George had a cannon for an arm, but was a basket case that played himself out of the league…
Stop cramming the obiviously square peg into the tiny little round hole…it doesn't help your cause…you have already proclaimed him a good QB with good field vision, decision making skills, accuracy and a bad line (or team for that matter)

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Gary Kubiak is an elite quarterback guru and when he has more confidence in Sage Rosenfels, it should tell you something....

From all I have seen and heard, the man is a first class jerk that likes to embarrass his QB in public after a showing that is not totally his fault…maybe "The guru" ought to spend some quality time improving his line, getting a top flight back, and a complementary receiver…Last I looked he is no longer a QB coach or or a coordinator, but a "Head Coach"…As a head coach he can't hide from the fact that Carr is the least of his problems…and if you really, really, really believe he has more confidence in Sage, your delusion runs deeper than then this post.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

No, I don't pretend to be a quarterback guru, but I have played the position.

LOL…and I have an Engineering degree with a minor in math, but according to you that just doesn't cut it to analyze a simple math formula…so what's your point?...Let me know when Kubiak taps you as a QB coach will ya…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Which does not change the fact that David Carr's completion percentage of 68% is very much inflated, and thus, weighing heavily in the overall equation.

Are you even paying attention?...once again…the completion percentage part of the equation is the most far removed from the ideal…no one has come close to the ideal…inflated or not by short passes, Carr is at a disadvantage with regards to the rest of the league if this is the one area he excels…I know I will have to repeat it next post, but hey, you did play QB once.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

He is a pinpoint short spread passer.

Good, you added pin point to his qualities…baby steps…I can live with baby steps...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

His accuracy is solid at the intermediate length. .

And solid…hey…we are moving along here…Saint hood is only a few steps away…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Downfield, he can get erratic because of his tendency to float balls.

Is this while in the mist of running around as the line gives way?...cause I got to tell ya…haven't seen a lot of down field accurate passing from QBs getting dumped an average of 50 times a season...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Again, I don't feel qualified to properly analyze the ins-and-outs of statistics.

And yet it does not stop you from trying...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

I just know that several well-esteemed statisticians have voiced their disapproval of the QB Rating as a crutch.

Oh yes, the mystery judges…how can I forget those that remain nameless...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Through observation, David Carr is not the most accurate passer in the NFL.

And yet his percentage says he is…and you gave him a "pin point" and a "solid" rating in two categories…imagine that...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

You can ask anyone, I think very few will agree with you and your statistics.

See, that's the thing about stats…they are not open to opinion…either he hit or did not hit 68% of his passes…in this case he did…those that do not agree he hit 68% of his passes need to go back to their math books…they are missing something that obsevation can't provide…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Manning has pinpoint accuracy at all three levels.

As in not hitting a single long pass prior to the Super Bowl in three playoff games…that kind of accuracy at the third level?...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

In the short range, it's very close.
.

Say that again…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

However, as you move to the next two levels, Manning begins to separate himself. .

Funny above you claimed that Carr was solid at the middle level…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

I agreed that the Bears would be better off with Carr than Grossman, but it depended on what they had to give..

Ah…see, you never, ever said…"It depends on…"….glad we are making progress…an the bold part…that is were I won the debate in case you are keeping track...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

If it was a day two pick, I would probably jump at it, but not for a day one. ..

LOL...Not a day one?...oh you are a funny one…should we make this a side debate until you realize that given the number of guys on the board and the bears lineup that they would give a pick on the first day for him?

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

His mechanics and confidence are far too shaky at the moment.

A front line that hold does wonders for confidence…I mean you played the position…you should know that…might even help the mechanics don't you agree?

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Once more just for you, his completion percentage and interception per attempt numbers are obviously helped by dumpoffs.

…finish the sentence…while his yard per throw and TD rate suffer…it’s a wash..

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

.
Because his mechanics and confidence are reason enough for me to not be sold on the Bears giving up significant value for him.

Hey you played the position…obviously you didn't scout it or coach it etc or you might have a different take...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

.
The debate actually started when you called Carr great. .

Outside the long completion…you have done a great job proving me right…lets review…
1) good field vision, 2) good decision making 3) pin point accuracy on the short 4) solid accuracy on the mid pass 5) mobility 6) better than Rex 7) he has no line he had no running back last year 9) best completion % while on a bad team…
Yeah, I say he is pretty damn good there…unless you are taking back what you said…
So I stand by it…another Archie Manning…a great QB on a sorry, sorry team…with a jerk of a coach and a Gm that passed on Bush…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

.
1.) It isn't too hard to be better than Rex.
.

Rex keeps dropping in this debate huh?

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

.
2.) Generally, he does have good vision. He has shown that he has a hard time seeing the deep, far perimeter though..

Love it when you back peddal on your own statement…be consitent man!

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

.
3.) Yes, he makes good decisions. He won't force the ball into traffic too much...

Lets amend your original statement again…LOL…back pedal…a bicycle might help…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

4.) He is an accurate short passer. Intermediately, he is solid. His accuracy with the deep ball can be erratic. ...

Deep ball he is running for his life…So many posts and not a mention that the man has to run for his life…shame on you…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

You failed to mention anything about his mechanics, which have noticeably declined, and there was nothing about his rattled confidence above either. ...

Repeat after me…if I did not have a running back and my line was made out of swiss cheese and I had been dumped 249 times in the regular season…I would be a tad, just a tad shaky as well…
As for for mechanics…if he is accurate short and solid to the middle of the field…what do you really want me to say about mechanics?...you crack me up man…

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Since your all about number crunching, I figured I would do some in-depth number research just for you. The following is in-depth statistical breakdown of David Carr at all three levels in 2006
Short: 260/322, 1892 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT.
Intermediate: 33/59, 553 YDS, 4 TD, 7 INT.
Deep: 9/28, 322 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT.
Other: 0/30, 0 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT.

The statistics have verified what I have been saying all along. He is an excellent short passer. As you can tell through simple mathmetics, over 70% of his total passes were short. Of those, he completed 80% of them. Certainly respectable, but not otherworldly.:...

Respectable?...I think the words you wanted to use was "League Leading"…its okay, I am here for you.

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

However, the decrease in numbers after that is telling. At the intermediate level, he completed just 56% of his passes and had more picks than touchdowns. His deep accuracy is among the worst in the league I would venture, completing just 32% of them. Other counts for the balls which were thrown away. .:...

Oh goody…lets compare…Peyton hit on 0.0% of the deep passes in the playoffs…so 32% on a bad team with a bad line is not all that bad huh?...

Originally Posted by Notorious C.L.E.

Have fun.

How can I not, you have back pedal through yet another post…LOL…you wanna move it to why the Bears are crazy not to give a first day pick, since you have lost this one?...You might fare better there...

[Notorious C.L.E.]

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Once again you fail to take into account that no one gets dumped 45-70 times a season on a regular basis…If he doesn't dump short that number would rise drastically to the point of bodily harm…I mean you are aware how often the man gets killed…and without a running game, pray tell what would you have him do, throw into coverage???

David Carr was responsible for 24 coverage sacks this season. Keep in mind that he got sacked 41 total times. With the numbers that you so dearly love, he is culpable almost 60% of the time. No, I wouldn't want him to force it into coverage, but I'd like it if he could hit guys before the defense jumps their routes.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Stable?...I really think the words you are looking for is none existent…as in no one home for the past five years...

Again, according to statistics, Carr is the one responsible for 60% of the sacks.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

I believe Kubiak's real knack on him is his footwork…not how long he holds the ball…Kubiak gets on all his QBs a lot about turnovers…thus holding the ball a long time while being a QB for Kubiak comes hand in hand.
On a side note, Kubiak is also a first class jerk who loves to "dress down his QBs in public" because it was done to him and he responded well to it…thus the guru fails to see that there might just be different strokes for different folks.

I honestly cannot comment on his pocket footwork, because I have not zeroed in on them, so to do so would be unfair to him; however, David Carr has held onto the ball too long for his entire career, so your argument that the problem can be traced back to Kubiak is erroneous.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Okay, well, the topic was Carr being a good QB and a good fit for the Bears…since he has been dumped 249 times in 5 years you nor Kubiak for that matter really knows what he can do downfield given enough time, a good back and recievers beyond Andre Johnson.
You have already admitted to him being a good QB…so I guess you have to jumpt the debate over to the word "great"…geez, win won debate and a second one breaks out…

I still wouldn't do it unless it was for a day two pick, preferably round five or six. His mechanics are haywire and his confidence is visibly affected. Excuse me for not jumping on the bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Stop cramming the obiviously square peg into the tiny little round hole…it doesn't help your cause…you have already proclaimed him a good QB with good field vision, decision making skills, accuracy and a bad line (or team for that matter)

Generally, he does have the ability to be accurate and make good decisions. I was probably being careless with my superlatives, but I think his field vision is nothing overly special. You can certainly live with it, but it is something that will never jump out at you as an overwhelming positive.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

From all I have seen and heard, the man is a first class jerk that likes to embarrass his QB in public after a showing that is not totally his fault…maybe "The guru" ought to spend some quality time improving his line, getting a top flight back, and a complementary receiver…Last I looked he is no longer a QB coach or or a coordinator, but a "Head Coach"…As a head coach he can't hide from the fact that Carr is the least of his problems…and if you really, really, really believe he has more confidence in Sage, your delusion runs deeper than then this post.

Except for the fact that Sage Rosefels was brought in on three separate occasions to replace David Carr. Going forward, I absolutely think he would rather have Rosenfels over Carr because while he probably is enamored with neither, the former is the cheaper of the two.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Are you even paying attention?...once again…the completion percentage part of the equation is the most far removed from the ideal…no one has come close to the ideal…inflated or not by short passes, Carr is at a disadvantage with regards to the rest of the league if this is the one area he excels…I know I will have to repeat it next post, but hey, you did play QB once.

And yet it is still one-fourth of the equation and it grades out as his most favorable.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Good, you added pin point to his qualities…baby steps…I can live with baby steps...

Pinpoint accuracy short. There are probably five to ten quarterbacks that I would apply that label to.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

And solid…hey…we are moving along here…Saint hood is only a few steps away…

Solid as in comfortably average. His accuracy is nothing special at the second level.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Is this while in the mist of running around as the line gives way?...cause I got to tell ya…haven't seen a lot of down field accurate passing from QBs getting dumped an average of 50 times a season...

And on average, Carr is responsible for a good amount of those sacks.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Oh yes, the mystery judges…how can I forget those that remain nameless...

KC Joyner is one of those that wants to unravel a new system, and he is considered to be the leading football statisticians by many, earning him the nickname of the Football Scientist.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

See, that's the thing about stats…they are not open to opinion…either he hit or did not hit 68% of his passes…in this case he did…those that do not agree he hit 68% of his passes need to go back to their math books…they are missing something that obsevation can't provide…

I like to see in order to believe. Sure, the stats say that he completes 68% of his passes. But my eyes say that he is nowhere near that mark in the accuracy department.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

As in not hitting a single long pass prior to the Super Bowl in three playoff games…that kind of accuracy at the third level?...

Wrong. He threw a beautiful pass to Jamar Fletcher for 32-yards I believe and had another nice one to Aaron Moorehead that he could not handle.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Say that again…

In the short range, Peyton Manning are David Carr are fairly close. I would probably give the edge to Manning, but I would easily give him the edge at the other two levels.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Funny above you claimed that Carr was solid at the middle level…

Care to tell me what is so special about being comfortably average at the middle level?

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Ah…see, you never, ever said…"It depends on…"….glad we are making progress…an the bold part…that is were I won the debate in case you are keeping track...

Of course it depends on what you giving up. Obviously, I am going to take the gamble on repairing the damage for a later picker than I am an earlier one.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

LOL...Not a day one?...oh you are a funny one…should we make this a side debate until you realize that given the number of guys on the board and the bears lineup that they would give a pick on the first day for him?

If they give a first day pick up for him it wouldn't be their smartest move. You build through the draft, especially the first day. The Bears have their fair share of needs, and while quarterback is one of them, I would go elsewhere in the draft.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

A front line that hold does wonders for confidence…I mean you played the position…you should know that…might even help the mechanics don't you agree?

I am willing to bet you never played quarterback. You make it seem like regaining confidence and mechanics are easy things to do. I got pounded early in my high school career and lost all faith in my abilities. I developed terrible habits. When you lose confidence in yourself, you hesitate. You become reactive rather than proactive. At quarterback, those mistakes are deadly. Even hesitating for half a second can be the difference between a sack and a completion, an interception and a touchdown. It took my an ungodly length of time to relearn proper mechanics. I really don't think the average person realizes how darn hard that is to do.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Hey you played the position…obviously you didn't scout it or coach it etc or you might have a different take...

Have you done either of the three? What makes you more qualified than me to access the play of a quarterback?

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Outside the long completion…you have done a great job proving me right…lets review…
1) good field vision, 2) good decision making 3) pin point accuracy on the short 4) solid accuracy on the mid pass 5) mobility 6) better than Rex 7) he has no line he had no running back last year 9) best completion % while on a bad team…
Yeah, I say he is pretty damn good there…unless you are taking back what you said…
So I stand by it…another Archie Manning…a great QB on a sorry, sorry team…with a jerk of a coach and a Gm that passed on Bush…

Field vision I was premature. While it isn't terrible per se, he does miss open receivers at times. He does make good decision. He does have pinpoint accuracy on short throws. He is comfortably average at the intermediate level, and erratic at the next. He is mobile, and he is better than Rex, but who would argue that that is a hard task to accomplish. I have already beaten the horse to death five times over, so there is no use to stubbornly argue against someone that is blindly married to the numbers.

As a side note, I will defend the move of drafting Mario Williams even though every "analyst" and their brother will tell you it was stupid. Tell me the last time there was a 6-7, 295 lbs. defensive end with the athletic ability of Mario Williams. Now tell me the last time there was a smaller, electrifying back.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Rex keeps dropping in this debate huh?

As you are all too quick to bring up, it was the reason it started.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Love it when you back peddal on your own statement…be consitent man!

I said generally, which is an adverb used to get your point across without particular instances or details. If you'd like me to divulge the dirty details, I would be more than happy to.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Lets amend your original statement again…LOL…back pedal…a bicycle might help…

I prefer those trucks that make the annoying, loud sound when the back up. To the point though, how did I back pedal?

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Deep ball he is running for his life…So many posts and not a mention that the man has to run for his life…shame on you…

Yes, there are times he runs for his life. But, there are also times when he runs right into the rush or sits in the pocket and seemingly accepts the inevitable as if there is nothing he can do about it.

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Repeat after me…if I did not have a running back and my line was made out of swiss cheese and I had been dumped 249 times in the regular season…I would be a tad, just a tad shaky as well…
As for for mechanics…if he is accurate short an