[cjg11582]

This thread is specifically for degenerate gamblers such as myself. It is for posting any advice, opinions and injury updates that could sway ones bet from one team to the next. Readers apply any advice given in this thread at their own peril. Here are the lines for tonight’s games (Home teams in caps):

Detroit -3.5 CLEVELAND
This is fairly straight forward. The Pistons manhandled Cleveland just yesterday in Detroit. Some might make the argument that Cleveland is 20-8 at home, which is impressive. However Detroit wins everywhere and is 20-7 on the road. My guess is they will improve to 21-7 by around 9:30 est. tonight. Cleveland has no man-to-man perimeter defense without Hughes and the post players for The Cavs are too soft for the Wallace’s.

New Jersey -2.5 ATLANTA
This is a difficult game to predict with Vince Carter questionable after a hamstring injury he suffered last night against Indiana. If he doesn’t play that places a large burden on Richard Jefferson’s shoulders to compensate for the loss of Carter. As inept as The Hawks are, if forced to decide I would take the home dog. But I am not so my best advice is to keep your money off of this line.

MIAMI -9 Toronto
The Raptors actually won the last time these two matched up in November. However it was in Toronto and Shaq did not play. Give the points, take Miami and wait for Chris Bosh to leave Canada in 2007.

MEMPHIS -3 Washington
This is the best line of the night. Memphis has enough perimeter defense to at least slow down Gilbert Arenas. They play in a better conference, sport a better record and play in the toughest division in the NBA. Whereas Washington plays in arguably the worst. To make this game even more lopsided, the last meeting between these to resulted in a twenty-five point win for The Grizzlies. Why this line is only three is beyond me.

DALLAS -9 Philadelphia
This game is difficult to judge. I was all set to claim Dallas a lock as it seems The Sixers have no one to match Nowitzki. Well, apparently Iguodala was capable of compensating for the height discrepancy because the last time they played Philly beat them handily by fifteen at Wachovia. Making The Sixers one of like seven teams to beat The Mavs. Take the points if you want to roll the dice.

SAN ANTONIO -15.5 New York
This is like a college football spread! Seriously, is this what it has come to for The Knicks? Even still, I cannot give New York enough credit to cover this against The Spurs in The Lone Star State. San Antonio is too complete of a team. Be weary of Popovich playing second tier players late in the game not wanting to embarrass his buddy Larry Brown.

Phoenix -2.5 HOUSTON
In short, The Suns were up by forty-seven at in the third quarter and Yao Ming had six points in the last meeting between these two the night before the all-star break in Houston. I will leave it up to you to decide how much has changed since then.

DENVER -6.5 Milwaukee
Assign a team to each side and flip the coin.

SACRAMENTO -15 Portland
Another monstrous line! I like how The Kings have been playing lately and Portland is unquestionably one of the five worst teams in the league. But to leave fifteen points on the table? If you compare it to the Spurs-Knicks match-up, since the lines are so similar, do you think The Kings are as complete as San Antonio or The Blazers are as inept as New York? Neither do I.

GOLDEN STATE -3 Utah
Are The Warriors the favorite solely because they are at home? Honestly, Baron Davis is still injured and they have split the season series with the road teams winning both times in close games. I would take the points.

LA CLIPPERS -10 Charlotte
This Charlotte team is better than their record indicates. Gerald Wallace looked solid in his return on Saturday night. And if Chris Kaman is sitting out with injury The Clippers are spread thin on the front line. Then again, so are The Bobcats. Speaking of Bobcats big men, is Sean May going to be this obese his entire career. He is still a rookie but at this rate we are going to see him in one of those hot dog eating contests in the next ten years. Tough call, normally wouldn’t go near it but I like taking the points despite a 5-24 road record. Just don’t listen to me.

Anyone have any thoughts? Any oversights or injuries worth noting? Any lines that look particularly intriguing or distressing? I am looking forward to going 2-9.

[cjg11582]

7-3 last night, I wish I had more money. Apparently Portland is that terrible but they are in a rebuilding year so its acceptable. Even though Nate McMillan is probably wishing he stayed in Seattle, and The Sonics are probably regretting not matching Portland's offer. The Sonics were in my estimation the fourth best team in The NBA last year behind The Spurs, Pistons and The Heat.And Miami was on cruise control all last night so I missed covering by three points Anyways, a shorter version of tonight's picks (Home team in caps):

CHICAGO -5.5 Minnesota
This is clearly a "take the points" type of game. With inconsistency from both ends and Chicago playing in the lesser conference (but ironically enough, the tougher division) it is difficult to anticipate Chicago covering against a team with KG on it. As far as numbers go, Minnesota has won all three times these two have met this year. In addition Chicago isn't any more impressive at home (12-15) than they are on the road (12-16) and The Bulls and Timberwolves have identical overall records (24-31). So that's essentially 5.5 points just for home court. Take the points.

SEATTLE -1 New Orleans/O.K. City
New Orleans has won both meetings this year and I don't see anything changing. The Sonics cannot cover Chris Paul nor David West. Snyder and Mason do a good enough job covering Lewis and Allen at the three-point line, or at least as good as anyone can. This is essentially picking a winner so I like going with the team sporting the better record.

L.A. LAKERS - 9.5 Orlando
Again, take the points. The Lakers essentially need fifty points from Kobe to beat anyone by ten and Orlando at least seems to be at peace since shipping out Steve Francis. Expect a significant contribution out of Dwight Howard.

I sense 0-3 for the night.

[Wizard of Os]

Cheers, CJG, and thanks for the degenerate gambling thread...please please please say you'll continue to be as thorough once football season comes 'round...

Don't double-digit spreads in the NBA scare you, though? Who knows if Orlando can cover 9.5 against the Lakes? Kobe -- i mean, Los Angeles -- could win this game by 27 or by 1 in OT. Or they could lose, darn it. It's not the same as in football, where a significant difference exists between a 9-point game and a 10-point game. In hoops? Bah, no difference whatsoever qualitatively.

I remember the first time i bet basketball in Vegas. I parlayed two games and lost them by a total of .5 points, thanks to the Grizzlies making a couple of cheap free throws against Philly in the closing minutes of the game. Argh...

[cjg11582]

Thats unfortunate, I love Vegas gambling stories though. My worst instance occurred during the 2003 NCAA final four, Chris Duhon hit a meaningless 75-footer in the closing seconds against UConn costing me about $200. Needless to say I am still bitter.
But as is the case with a majority of these NBA games, I tend to stay away from. I went 0-3 on my picks last night and under no circumstances would I have placed money on any of those lines. The first night however, I went 7-3 and covered the three spreads I actually wagered on. In the future I may just list games I am confident in and answer any query's readers might have.
As for the NFL, Just like any league that is parity driven, The NFL is very fickle to bet on. Outside of The Colts (Whose playoff game against the Steelers still managed to be the biggest dissapointment of my gambling career, I found a Steelers fan to go straight up with me. So I took it depsite the fact I loathe The Colts and knew they would choke in the playoffs. But who can leave that bet on the table when I am getting a 9.5 point favorite at even money?) I do not believe there was a consistent cover all year. Maybe things will level out next season but I am skeptic. I try to stick with college football and The NBA but maybe you could provide some insight in that betting realm. It is unparalleled as far as sports betting popularity is concerned.

[Wizard of Os]

You know, i do believe the NFL is playable and winnable, but i also believe that there are only about twelve games per season that are certainly easy money. If you can catch the team on the hot streak, remember who hates coming off the bye week, know who smokes on the road. And every so often, the line is like something out of the Twilight Zone, begging you to bet this one. But, like i say, these windows of opportunity number about a dozen per year.

I remember the easiest money i ever made was in 2001-2002 when the incredibly underrated Patriots kept winning and winning and WINNING despite being underdogs according to 'Vegas. I won, what, ten times in a row i think and it would have been eleven but i admit to my shame i did not bet on them in the 'Bowl.

[cjg11582]

Yeah, I could picture that team being a cash cow. Is there any team similar to that in the upcoming season? Maybe the Dolphins? Though I can see them being successful next year in terms of wins, not neccesarily covering spreads.
In the NBA it is difficult to find an equivalent for the Patriots. Partly because they play every two days and partly just the nature of the game. One injury to an NBA team is much more detrimental than one injury to an NFL team (Quarterbacks excluded). Looking for favorable match-ups is the key.
That Houston-Phoenix game from Monday is a perfect example. Houston is not as bad as their record indicates and they can play with just about anybody in the league, thats why the line is so small. But who can keep up with Nash on that Houston team? Rafer Alston? Luther Head? Yao Ming looks like he is in slow motion on the defensive side of the ball. So the best option is to look for contrasting styles of play and bet on who seems to be at an advantage.
Also, look for road teams with superior talent and small lines. People tend to place too much emphasis in The NBA on home court. This isn't college ball, it isn't that vital to the outcome of a game (unless the game is in Detroit).

[cjg11582]

Tonight's games (home team in caps):

CHICAGO -4 Cleveland
SAN ANTONIO -5 Dallas
At this point The Cavs game is half over but I like the Dallas and the points in the later evening game. I actually teased these two and got Cleveland at +8 and Dallas at +9. Both teams seem(ed) as likely to win as they are to lose.
Cleveland is decimating Chicago right now, if they somehow manage to lose this game it will officially been a slump.

[cjg11582]

Lines that look promising (home teams in caps):

Sacramento -3.5 ATLANTA
The Kings have been owning teams like this since acquriing Ron Artest. While many think he categorically insane, that mentality has its advantages in athletics. this line is alarmingly swayed by home court advantage. Basically, if you think The Kings will win then this is a safe bet, The Hawks do not have the heart to keep this one close.

Games that look sketchy, but if I was in a good mood I would place money on them:
LA Lakers -1 Golden State
The Lakers should win this with Baron Davis sidelined and The Warriors lack the inside presence to exploit The Lakers vulnerabilities. So personally I would take Kobe Bryant over Jason Richardson any day. It seems shaky, but this should be fairly safe. then again, is anything safe with a Kobe Bryant lead Laker team? Admittedly, they are fairly unpredictable.

DALLAS -12 Charlotte
The Mavs are going to be looking to take out their frustrations after last nights loss to The Spurs, and The Bobcats are an ideal team to do it to. This is also the last of a six game road trip for Charlotte and I think the affects of that will be transparent. That and Dallas' 26-4 home standing versus The Bobcats 6-25 road record should also be recognizable to the tune of fifteen points.

I have too many reservations towards the rest of the games on tap tonight. Best of luck.

[Nitch]

Originally Posted by Wizard of Os

You know, i do believe the NFL is playable and winnable, but i also believe that there are only about twelve games per season that are certainly easy money. If you can catch the team on the hot streak, remember who hates coming off the bye week, know who smokes on the road. And every so often, the line is like something out of the Twilight Zone, begging you to bet this one. But, like i say, these windows of opportunity number about a dozen per year.

I remember the easiest money i ever made was in 2001-2002 when the incredibly underrated Patriots kept winning and winning and WINNING despite being underdogs according to 'Vegas. I won, what, ten times in a row i think and it would have been eleven but i admit to my shame i did not bet on them in the 'Bowl.

see the episode of the simpsons when lisa helps hommer pick the wining team for his bets. Football is predictable but basketball is not so easy

[cjg11582]

I meant to post yesterday as I took notice of some intrguing lines while at work. Much to my dismay though, when I arrived home my internet connection was shot, leaving me with only a newspaper to stare blankly at and regret not having access to a functioning computer. Long story short: I incapable of posting. I respect your point of view and The Simpsons analogy is definitely well-intentioned. But that episode originally aired at a time when The NFL still had about three to five teams dictating the outcome of a season for the entire league. There wasn't nearly as much parity and there was a surplus of very coverable lines. We certainly didn't see teams coming out of left field to make the playoffs after going 5-11 the previous year. Such as The Bears, Redskins, Giants all did this season (maybe not 5-11 specifically but thereabouts). Not to mention The Seahawks, who snuck into the playoffs in 2004 and dominated The NFC in 2005. Who could have predicted that?
Conversely, in The NBA, one would have to take The Pistons, Heat, Spurs, Suns and Mavs against the field this year to win the NBA title (And I am not even sure the latter two teams have much promise). If someone who follows The NBA and understands the dynamics of the league would take the field against those five teams, that person is either insane, misguided or just flat out stupid. If you took the five favorites going into the 2005 NFL season you probably would have taken The Patriots, Colts, Eagles, Broncos and Jets. None of which even made The Superbowl and only three made the playoffs.
It goes without saying that comparing the predictability between who is going to win a championship and who is going to cover any random point spread are two starkly different things. But being able to determine who will win a title with no prior knowledge other than what is on paper speaks to the degree of difficulty involved with gambling from game to game.
Ultimately this is all subjective, and if someone feels comfortable gambling on one sport over another; then by all means, wager on who and what you are comfortable with. Personally, I have played a lot of basketball and apparently have a fundemental understanding of how it is played professionally. But have never played a down of organized football so I lack that understanding. I like the perspective though, I can only encourage TV references.

[cjg11582]

I have really been lagging on keeping up with this thread. I wasn't around a computer at all this past weekend and probably missed some good lines. Anyways, here are some games I like tonight (home team in caps):

Washington -4.5 CHARLOTTE
With Caron Butler in this team is around ten games over .500, they should be able to cover this diminutive spread with little trouble.

SACRAMENTO -6.5 LA Lakers
The Lakers have been playing well lately, I would expect them to continue the trend against The Kings whom they have played over-performed against all season.

Phoenix -5.5 SEATTLE
No great perimeter D to slow down Nash, Seattle shoots too many 3's that lead to long rebounds and fast break points for The Suns. A Six point victory seems inevitable here.

[cjg11582]

Sacramento -1.5 INDIANA
We'll see how much the vengeance factor affects this game. My guess is it will be somewhat subdued. Indiana is similar to San Antonio in that they are never overly emotional about their game (Not with Artest gone at least) and they tend to be much more mechanical. While that is effective in the majority, it tends to be a let down in situations like these. Certainly the crowd is going to boo and hiss like no other Indianapolis sports crowd ever has in the past. But Sacramento has the better team and with the number Artest did on Bryant a few nights ago, its unfathomable what he is going to do the ex-King. I like Sacramento to win by seven or eight in this one.

ORLANDO -3 Boston
This is an instance where I think the underdog should be the favorite. It must be a culmination of Orlando being at home and Boston losing on national television last night (in a tight game with The Heat). Never the less, who is going to guard Paul Pierce on this Magic team? Deshaun Stevenson? Carlos Arroyo? I think I will take my chances on the most underrated player in the league, the team with more character and take three points while doing so.

Detroit -9 NEW YORK
This is a questionable line but in all honesty could this Knicks team be any worse? They have the highest payroll in the league and the worst record. Has that ever happened in the history of professional sports? I recall hearing something about The New York Rangers a few years ago but cannot remember the specifics of it. Besides, I hate hockey. Anyways with this ongoing Marbury-Larry Brown saga it only hurts The Knicks as Stephons PT will be limited and all of The Pistons players hate Larry Brown. I'll give the points in this one.

[cjg11582]

I am fairly confident the only way I could be more streaky with picking these games is if I either won or lost every single game I attempted to predict. I went 0-3 on March 17th bringing my total record to 14-9. So much for The Pacers playing devoid of emotion. Onto the picks (Home team in caps):

INDIANA -5 Chicago
We will try the counter approach to this Pacers team and take them to cover five against the hapless Bulls. I guess the logice here is if they can beat the thriving Kings at home by nine, then surely they can beat The Bulls by 5.5. Keep your eye on Georgia Tech alum Luke Schenscher playing for Chicago, you should be able to spot him easily. He sort of catches the eye and is in a running competition with Chris Kaman and Sigiana Diop for most uncomfortable looking seven footer in The NBA.

DETROIT -7.5 Miami
Have these two teams ever played a game with an eight point margin? Much to my dismay this Heat team has been on a roll, and the Pistons have lost to The Knicks in the past week. While The Pistons could very well win tonights match-up, I just cannot see them winning by eight points. This line seems inflated because it is in Detroit.

San Antonio -2.5 DENVER
This is essentially a pick for The Spurs to win the game. they are 2-1 against The Nuggets this year and are more or less healthy right now. Generally, when the line is this low and the favorite is the best team in the league over the past few years, I tend to wager on the favorite.

Philadelphia -8.5 ATLANTA
What the hell? Is Iverson playing? If no, then take Atlanta, If yes, just keep your distance.

[cjg11582]

Two games slated for tonight. One is fairly clear cut the other completely indeterminate. Lets start with the obvious (Home team in caps):

San Antonio -4.5 LA LAKERS
When in doubt take the world champions. This logic has proved faulty before, but there is essentially no other logic to go by in this match-up. The Spurs are 2-1 in the season series and all three games were close. I like Kobe to rip off about 45 tonight on four days rest in a losing effort.

Phoenix -4 INDIANA
This game is all over the radar. Indiana needs wins as they can still grab the fifth seed and theyu are playing this one at home. Phoenix on the other hand has been slipping on this recent eastern conference road swing but I think that may be related to trying to assimilate Amare back into the system which conflicted with the flow of the team. With him out I expect them to get out of this current rut they are in. But that seems presumptuous to me. After all, why would a team suddenly turn it around. I have no idea. They have played only once this year and Phoenix won by eighteen points but Indiana was so erratic and dysfunctional all season, who knows what was going on with that team? Now that they are stable they can beat anyone on a given night. So with my underwhelming confidence I am taking Phoenix to cover. Solely because I think they are the better team and are dissatisfied with how games have been ending lately.