[stepay]

So, here's his deal:

He's still just 29 years old.
He'll surpass 300 home runs this season barring injury.
He has hit 40 or more home runs 5 times already.
He's currently in the midst of what could be his best season (still a long way to go, but he's cranking out the home runs and batting in the .280s).
Assuming he were able to play 8 more seasons after this one, and assuming he ends this season with about 310 HRs, he'll need to average just 24 HRs a season to top 500.

So, is 500 enough these days?

He has a LOT of negatives...not a great fielder, poor batting average, low RBIs for a power hitter, not usually an All Star (only one time so far).

When he hit his career high 46 home runs in 2004, he finished just 28th in the MVP voting.

If he were able to play 9 more seasons and duplicate the first 9, he'd end up with more than 600 home runs. A BIG stretch I know, but would 600 home runs for a .248 career hitter and someone who only made the All Star team one time...would that be enough to get in the Hall of Fame?

Not defending him here...just looking for thoughts. I'm not sure anyone thinks of Adam Dunn as a Hall of Famer, but at the same time I'm not sure most people know he's hit 40 or more home runs 5 seasons in a row and is on pace to do it again this year. We could look up at the end of his career and see some amazing numbers. What to do then?

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by stepay

So, here's his deal:

He's still just 29 years old.
He'll surpass 300 home runs this season barring injury.
He has hit 40 or more home runs 5 times already.
He's currently in the midst of what could be his best season (still a long way to go, but he's cranking out the home runs and batting in the .280s).
Assuming he were able to play 8 more seasons after this one, and assuming he ends this season with about 310 HRs, he'll need to average just 24 HRs a season to top 500.

So, is 500 enough these days?

He has a LOT of negatives...not a great fielder, poor batting average, low RBIs for a power hitter, not usually an All Star (only one time so far).

When he hit his career high 46 home runs in 2004, he finished just 28th in the MVP voting.

If he were able to play 9 more seasons and duplicate the first 9, he'd end up with more than 600 home runs. A BIG stretch I know, but would 600 home runs for a .248 career hitter and someone who only made the All Star team one time...would that be enough to get in the Hall of Fame?

Not defending him here...just looking for thoughts. I'm not sure anyone thinks of Adam Dunn as a Hall of Famer, but at the same time I'm not sure most people know he's hit 40 or more home runs 5 seasons in a row and is on pace to do it again this year. We could look up at the end of his career and see some amazing numbers. What to do then?

Dunn, if you look at his numbers is very, very consistent with his homer run output each year...(I think he stops when he gets to the total from the previous year...lol)...having said that, he is no better than Dave Kingman...a totally one dimensional player who will do little else but draw a walk, strikeout, or hit a homer...not Hall worthy in my book...and I am a Red's fan...

[stepay]

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

Dunn, if you look at his numbers is very, very consistent with his homer run output each year...(I think he stops when he gets to the total from the previous year...lol)...having said that, he is no better than Dave Kingman...a totally one dimensional player who will do little else but draw a walk, strikeout, or hit a homer...not Hall worthy in my book...and I am a Red's fan...

Good comparison if Dunn ends up with about 450 home runs (Kingman had 442). Kingman did though only have one season with 40+ home runs, Dunn has 5 already. Dunn's batting average is a tiny bit better too so far - .236 to .248

But, what do baseball writers do if Dunn ends up with a .245 batting average but 587 home runs and 1600 RBIs? What if he hits 603 home runs? I know it's a big if, but with the potential to DH in the American League, he could play to age 40, 41, 42, who knows. He's not really been injury prone to date.

Dunn won't be 30 until the end of this season. Just for fun, let's say he hits 40 home runs again this year. That gives him 318 at the end of this season.

Then with the following ages, he hits the following numbers of home runs:

30 - 38
31 - 32
32 - 32
33 - 30
34 - 29
35 - 27
36 - 27
37 - 23
38 - 21
39 - 19
40 - 15
41 - 13
42 - 8

That's 314 more for a total of 632, and that's a considerable drop off right at the end there.

More than likely he'll hit 30-40 until about age 34 and then a season with 23 or so and then maybe one more season with 12 and then retire by about age 37 or 38.

What would that do?

30 - 40
31 - 36
32 - 34
33 - 33
34 - 30
35 - 23
36 - 18
37 - 6

That leaves him with 538. Probably not enough. He probably needs to either start hitting for a higher average or hit 600 to make the Hall of Fame. They made Harmon Killebrew wait a little while, and Dunn is no where near Harmon Killebrew's league -- not yet anyway. If Dunn finishes with 500+ home runs (but less than 600), he may be the first over 500 not involved in steroids (as far as we know now) to not be elected.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by stepay

Good comparison if Dunn ends up with about 450 home runs (Kingman had 442). Kingman did though only have one season with 40+ home runs, Dunn has 5 already. Dunn's batting average is a tiny bit better too so far - .236 to .248

But, what do baseball writers do if Dunn ends up with a .245 batting average but 587 home runs and 1600 RBIs? What if he hits 603 home runs? I know it's a big if, but with the potential to DH in the American League, he could play to age 40, 41, 42, who knows. He's not really been injury prone to date.

Dunn won't be 30 until the end of this season. Just for fun, let's say he hits 40 home runs again this year. That gives him 318 at the end of this season.

Then with the following ages, he hits the following numbers of home runs:

30 - 38
31 - 32
32 - 32
33 - 30
34 - 29
35 - 27
36 - 27
37 - 23
38 - 21
39 - 19
40 - 15
41 - 13
42 - 8

That's 314 more for a total of 632, and that's a considerable drop off right at the end there.

More than likely he'll hit 30-40 until about age 34 and then a season with 23 or so and then maybe one more season with 12 and then retire by about age 37 or 38.

What would that do?

30 - 40
31 - 36
32 - 34
33 - 33
34 - 30
35 - 23
36 - 18
37 - 6

That leaves him with 538. Probably not enough. He probably needs to either start hitting for a higher average or hit 600 to make the Hall of Fame. They made Harmon Killebrew wait a little while, and Dunn is no where near Harmon Killebrew's league -- not yet anyway. If Dunn finishes with 500+ home runs (but less than 600), he may be the first over 500 not involved in steroids (as far as we know now) to not be elected.

When Kingman's homers are viewed verses his peers, his totals are more impressive than Dunns...also, you are projecting Dunn final numbers...and power hitters are tricky to project...Look at Dale Murphy how much he tailed off...and he had back to back MVPs, and 5 gold gloves...and not in the Hall...you can't make a case for Dunn if Dale Murphy can't make it...or Steve Garvey etc...

[stepay]

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

When Kingman's homers are viewed verses his peers, his totals are more impressive than Dunns...also, you are projecting Dunn final numbers...and power hitters are tricky to project...Look at Dale Murphy how much he tailed off...and he had back to back MVPs, and 5 gold gloves...and not in the Hall...you can't make a case for Dunn if Dale Murphy can't make it...or Steve Garvey etc...

I agree that power numbers are tough to predict. Who would have thought Andruw Jones would crash this badly? If Dunn ends up with less than 500 home runs, I agree with you that he can't be in if Murphy and Garvey aren't, but again, he's young enough that the WHAT IF thing can creep up. WHAT IF he ends up with 600 home runs but a paltry .245 batting average and he never makes another All Star team? That COULD happen. I say as long as someone isn't proven a cheater that 600 is automatic (500 used to be). If he hits 560 but doesn't improve other parts of his game, I don't think he's in. 600 home runs makes him NOT Dale Murphy and Steve Garvey. Big ifs I know. Seems to me that for a one-dimensional player like him, he HAS to hit 600+ to get in. Just going to depend on how his body holds up and how he ages.

[Gotham Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by stepay

I agree that power numbers are tough to predict. Who would have thought Andruw Jones would crash this badly? If Dunn ends up with less than 500 home runs, I agree with you that he can't be in if Murphy and Garvey aren't, but again, he's young enough that the WHAT IF thing can creep up. WHAT IF he ends up with 600 home runs but a paltry .245 batting average and he never makes another All Star team? That COULD happen. I say as long as someone isn't proven a cheater that 600 is automatic (500 used to be). If he hits 560 but doesn't improve other parts of his game, I don't think he's in. 600 home runs makes him NOT Dale Murphy and Steve Garvey. Big ifs I know. Seems to me that for a one-dimensional player like him, he HAS to hit 600+ to get in. Just going to depend on how his body holds up and how he ages.

I don't see +600...not in that body...look at the legit +600 crowd...they have a fast bat, fast wrists...not muscle...big guys like that lose bat speed down the stretch...back to your man Aaron...line drive hitter with quick wrists...as compare to say Frank Howard or Ted Kluzenski...big players, big hitters, did not age well...I see Dunn as the later...

[stepay]

Originally Posted by Gotham Dark Knight

I don't see +600...not in that body...look at the legit +600 crowd...they have a fast bat, fast wrists...not muscle...big guys like that lose bat speed down the stretch...back to your man Aaron...line drive hitter with quick wrists...as compare to say Frank Howard or Ted Kluzenski...big players, big hitters, did not age well...I see Dunn as the later...

You are probably correct there. 600 home runs is a LOT to expect of anyone. He probably tops out in the 400s somewhere.

No one here has mentioned Dunn's OBP, which is .385 for his career. If you want to complain about his batting average, you can't neglect the fact that he has a better OBP than Reggie Jackson, Willie Mays, or Mike Schmidt. You could make the argument Dunn is just as good as Jackson. While Jackson has the edge in BA .262-.250, Dunn is beating him in OBP .385-.356. Dunn has an edge in SLG, .524-.490. So Reginald Jackson, one of the faces of power hitting in the history of baseball, has a 63 point disadvantage to Dunn in OPS. At this pace, it is perfectly concievable that Dunn could pass Jackson with his 563 HRs. If he gets anywhere close to 600, there is no reason Dunn should be left out.