 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
Quote:
2006 record: 76-86, 4th place NL West
Projected Lineup:
CF Chris Young
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Chad Tracy
LF Eric Byrnes
1B Conor Jackson
RF Carlos Quentin
SS Stephen Drew
C Chris Snyder
Projected Rotation:
Brandon Webb
Randy Johnson
Livan Hernandez
Doug Davis
Micah Owings
Projected Closer:
Jose Valverde
Outlook:
”Sometimes, I think it’s a sin, when I feel like I’m winning when I’m losing again” -Gordon Lightfoot
Last week we discussed the Florida Marlins, a young franchise in a rebuilding process after dismantling a championship team. The D-Backs are going through a similar situation, except they are not really having as much success as their gilled cousins from Miami. Arizona certainly has the young talent on the rise, but they don’t really have any veteran bats to help guide the process. They lost the hero of the 2001 World Series, Luis Gonzalez, to free agency. They traded away solid-hitting catcher Johnny Estrada to Milwaukee. The holes will be filled with some very promising (yet green) young players.
The Diamondbacks have flaunted one of baseball’s best minor-league prospect lists for the last two years, and we are now seeing some of the crops bear fruit. Arizona will hope that the fruit will be ripe enough to carry their offense in 2007.
At the front of the rotation, Arizona boasts one of the best pitchers in the National League, 2006 Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb. Webb has been consistently excellent since entering the league in 2003, with a career ERA+ of 139. The right-hander will be 28 in May, and should continue to provide 200+ high-quality innings. Factor in the improved infield and outfield defense, and Webb is a decent bet to repeat as an All-Star starter.
One of the larger news items in the hot stove season was the trade of future Hall of Famer and world-renowned surly bastard Randy Johnson. Johnson asked out of New York, and the Yankees were more than eager to acquiesce, after the gangly lefty stunk worse than the Hudson River in July. Some assume that Randy will bounce back, because Randy is just one of those guys who “can’t play in New York”. Others (I would probably fit into this camp) believe that he would be terrible in any venue, whether it’s New York, Phoenix, Seattle, Iowa City, or Planet Eris. He’ll be 44 in September, and his K ratios, Randy’s bread and butter, have been decreasing steadily. He might have a bit more success than he had in 2006, simply because the competition level in the AL East is higher than in the NL West, but it would be foolhardy to expect him to return to his 300 K days.
Behind RJ is perhaps the most infamous innings-eater in the major leagues, the man with the rubber arm: Livan Hernandez. Amazingly, in each of his 9 full seasons, Livan has pitched 200 or more innings. He has made at least 33 starts in 7 straight seasons. While he can be counted on to show up and pitch, the Diamondbacks are hoping they get above-average innings from the sometimes inconsistent right-hander. Livan’s career ERA+ is 101, which means his performance has been just about average (regardless of durability).
Doug Davis is a new acquisition from Milwaukee, and like Livan, he can be counted on for numerous quality innings, and has a solid track record (career ERA+ of 102). Unlike Livan, Doug Davis is a bit of a stringbean (6’4”, 190 lbs), and he is a lefty. Aside from those minor details, they are similar performers. The final rotation spot is still up for grabs, but rookie Micah Owings has been impressing management, and is probably the front-runner as of this writing. Other candidates include Enrique Gonzalez, Edgar Gonzalez, the chronically disappointing Juan Cruz, and rookie prospect Dustin Nippert.
Now, while the rotation looks decent enough, especially if the Big Unit is on his game, the bullpen situation is looking a bit dicey. Manager Bob Melvin has already anointed fireballing Jose Valverde closer. Jose did strike out 12.6 guys per 9 innings last seasons, but was eminently hittable, with a WHIP of 1.46. If he can maintain his high-velocity stuff, Valverde should improve upon those numbers in 2006, perhaps establishing himself as a lights-out closer in the National League. Behind Valverde is Jorge Julio, also a guy who can be counted on for a K in a pinch (12 K per 9 IP in 2006), but does have control issues and gives up plenty of HRs.
Behind the two fireballers, the Arizona bullpen is shallower than a sorority girl. Old friend Brandon Lyon is there, as well as Tony Pena (no relation to the former catcher), but neither right-hander can be counted on for more than league-average innings at best. 27-year-old Brandon Medders is an interesting bullpen arm, and has had success in his brief time at the major league level. However, he doesn’t miss very many bats, and must rely on pinpoint control to be effective. The final spots in the bullpen will likely go to a lefty, and the frontrunners for the job are prospect Dana Eveland (who is also a longshot for the 5th starter job), and rookie Doug Slaten.
The Arizona lineup has a few extremely promising parts, including a solid bet for 2007 NL Rookie of the Year: 5-tool centerfielder Chris Young. Young is an offensive and defensive wunderkind, an absolute vacuum cleaner in CF, and a guy who can provide pop, patience, and speed on offense. The one knock against the rookie: he sometimes has trouble making contact. As long as he can keep the Ks to a reasonable rate, Young should become one of the most productive players in this lineup. While it is speculated that Arizon is actively looking for a leadoff hitter before the season begins, Young is the guy expected to bat first, if the roster remains unchanged. Carlos Quentin is another up-and-coming outfielder in this talent-rich organization, and the 24-year-old will get the starting RF job out of the gate. Quentin does not have the speed of Young, but he is a nice offensive player who will produce from the right side of the plate.
In left field will be one of my personal least favorite players: Eric Byrnes. He of the golden locks had a decent 2006, belting a career-high 26 HRs and swiping 25 bases in 28 opportunities. While Byrnes may be a decent role player, he shouldn’t be counted on as an offensive lynchpin. Unfortunately for Arizona, Byrnes is slated to bat cleanup in 2007. Switch-hitting Jeff DaVanon is an excellent 4th OF option, and could fill in adequately if any of the starters get hurt (or decide to suck).
Headlining the infield is Stephen Drew, who was terrific in his half-season debut in 2006. His slugging percentage of .517 might be difficult to maintain, as his extra base hits included a whopping 7 triples in 223 plate appearances. Still, the young shortstop will be one of the better hitters at his position, and he should be about average defensively. He could eventually replace his double-play mate, Orlando Hudson, at the 2-hole in the batting order. Hudson did have a career year in 2006, and his offensive production has been steadily improving each year. He’s only 29, still capable of breaking out with the .300/.375/.475 type of season Blue Jays fans were hoping to see from the switch-hitter throughout the first half of his career. If it’s going to happen, it will likely happen this season.
The corner infield, like the middle, is also stocked with promising young talent. Conor Jackson, the 25-year-old right-handed hitting first baseman, will not be slugging with the likes of his counterparts in Philly and St. Louis, but he does have impressive contact and walk rates. However, if you ever hear anyone comparing him to John Olerud, please slap them, for me. There are several reasons why the comparison is awful (defense and handedness being the two obvious reasons). It’s of those little baseball discussion traps: whenever you have a first baseman who hits, but not for power, he’ll be compared to John Olerud. 95% of the time, the comparison makes no sense. There really was only one of Olerud (who is arguably qualified for Cooperstown, when you look closely at his body of work). Anyway, I digress.
Third baseman Chad Tracy did not match his outstanding career year of 2005, but is 27 years old, and PECOTA is expecting an improvement over his pedestrian 2006. He’s a butcher in the field, but the team desperately needs his bat in the lineup. Backing up 3B, SS, and 2B will be rookie Alberto Callaspo, who should be one of the toughest men in baseball to strike out. The switch-hitter fanned only 27 times in 554 plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League last season. Backing up first-base is Tony Clark (yup, still around), looking to squeeze out a few more days in the sun. Despite his horrid Red Sox stint, I’m rooting for him. He does hit from both sides of the plate, and Arizona will take whatever offense they can get. Fighting for a roster spot is the oft-injured Robby Hammock, who does have versatility on his side: aside from playing some corner infield, the 29-year-old can also serve as a third catcher.
The catching situation in Arizona is an interesting one. We have Chris Snyder (a righty), who was very impressive as a backup in 2006, and we have Miguel Montero (a lefty), an up-and-coming catcher who has bashed his was through the minor leagues. Snyder is the better fielder, while Montero would probably out-hit him. Expect Snyder to get most of the time out of the gate, which could change quickly if Montero forces Melvin’s hand. As I’ve been saying, this team will need to squeeze runs out of every position, however they can.
Overall, this team is a rather tough one of evaluate, as there are quite a few young wildcards in the lineup, and one 44-year-old wildcard in the rotation. The pitching staff looks decent enough. Webb is one of baseball’s best, and Randy Johnson could prove me wrong by adding another All-Star season to his outlandish Hall of Fame resume.
However, when all is said and done, we’re looking at a team that will be expecting a whole lot of some young guys who have yet to see a full MLB season. Most of the other teams in their division are improved. The sun gets very hot in Phoenix, and the MLB season is long and grueling. Even with all this young talent, their cleanup hitter is still Eric Byrnes.
| The House That Dewey Built » Arizona Diamondbacks 2007 Preview The Pundit's prediction: 3rd in NL Central. Because Randy Johnson is going back to the NL, I think they'll finish ahead of the Padres.  |
03-29-2007, 12:46 PM
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